Believe it or not, football is pretty much here! The NFL season is barreling towards us, with the kickoff game this Thursday and the week one slate getting started this weekend.
It always feels soon when the season starts, as it’s still technically the summer. This year has certainly been a whirlwind, and there are a lot of things going on around us that are much bigger than football. (One of which, for example, is the ongoing conversation surrounding racism and police brutality, which is likely to intersect with the NFL this year in the form of protests and other movements.)
It’s questionable whether Football should even be happening right now with the pandemic nowhere near contained. However, like most institutions in this country, the NFL seems content on barreling forward until they are literally forced to stop.
I’m excited for the season, but I also recognize it’s a tremendous risk, and I just hope the players can stay safe and that there is as little damage as possible. It’s not unlikely that the NFL shuts down midseason, as all it takes is one outbreak to ruin things. So for those watching, best to enjoy these first few weeks as much as you can, and hope for as little damage as possible along the way.
For those who haven’t exactly had Football on their radar over the past year, here are some storylines you can look forward to watching play out as the season unfolds.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: How will the Ravens offense change after Lamar Jackson’s MVP year?
Lamar Jackson lit the league on fire last year, and he did so in a way the league had never really seen before. The Ravens went all in on building an offense around Lamar Jackson’s legs as a weapon, utilizing pistol formations, college concepts, and an array of diverse runs and misdirections. Jackson was spectacular, and the Ravens ran Jackson more than anyone thought possible at this level. They did, however, struggle when they got behind in games. This ultimately came to a head in the playoffs, where the Titans got a lead early and forced the Ravens out of their run heavy game plan. With a year of Jackson and this Raven’s offense on tape, will the Ravens offense try to look more traditional? Or will they continue to do what they did last year?
Jackson was so good that it’s hard to see him regressing. But NFL defenses are smart, and they adjust. I’m wondering if we’ll have to see more of the Ravens playing from behind this year, or if we’ll see a more traditional offense, and if so, how Jackson will look running it.
Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, Joe Burrow, and Joe Burrow
Burrow set college football on fire for its 150th anniversary, on the way to a record setting offense, a record QB season, a championship, and a record margin of votes for his Heisman trophy win. Early reports coming out of the Bengals are good, and I can’t wait to see what he will do at the next level. Not to mention the WR they drafted out of Clemson, Tee Higgins. If AJ Green and John Ross can stay healthy, this could be an explosive offense as long as the line holds up.
Then of course, there’s the coaching staff. Last year’s hiring of Zac Taylor was widely panned due to his inexperience. After a poor first season, a QB change should spice things up. However, a poor second season for the Bengals could leave Taylor in trouble. I’m curious to see how this offense looks with Burrow at the helm.
Cleveland Browns: Comeback for Mayfield + Co?
Baker Mayfield had a fantastic rookie season, and I think we all got a little too excited for a sophomore year of him throwing to Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry, while forgetting that the Browns are still, indeed, the Browns.
Freddie Kitchens, who was in over his head, is gone, and in comes Kevin Stefanski. He’s hoping to implement a more tight-end heavy, run oriented attack in the likes of Gary Kubiak, Kyle Shanahan, etc. It’s an offense that’s been successful around the league, and the Browns have one of the best backs in the league in Nick Chubb to run it. Most people are optimistic that this will help Mayfield. I hope so, because based on his college tape and his rookie year, the ceiling is sky high. He does have a lot of hurdles to overcome though, based on last year. Not to mention another challenge for Stefanski: There are a lot of big personalities on this team that need to be managed.
This year we’ll see if it’s “Whoa! The Browns!” or, “just another year for the Browns…”
Pittsburgh Steelers: Can Ben Roethlisberger Stay Healthy and Get Back To Form?
Big Ben got hurt early last year, and the offense was anemic in his absence. For some reason, Mike Tomlin finally decided to get aggressive with defensive acquisitions while Ben was gone, instead of doing so all those years when Ben was in his prime…
Nonetheless, if Roethlisberger can come back, he’ll be helped out by a defense anchored by Minkah Fitzpatrick and Devin White. Roethlisberger is likely past his prime, but even 70-80% of what he used to be is likely good enough for these guys to compete.
The problem is, Roethlisberger is now 38, and he rarely can be trusted to stay healthy. Wide Receiver is also a question without Antonio Brown. The Steelers drafted Notre Dame WR Chase Claypool, but he’s questionable. NFL Films Guru Greg Cosell once said that, “at times it looked like there were tight ends that ran better than [Claypool] did.”
This year should tell us if it’s the end for Big Ben or not.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Can Josh Allen be good enough?
Make no mistake, this is a Bills team that is good enough to compete with their defense and running game. They have also updated their WR core, which was woefully undersized last year.
The question mark is at quarterback, where Josh Allen continues to be exciting but erratic. This continued into the Bills’ playoff loss last year, where they gave up a 16-0 lead to lose 22-19 to the Texans in overtime.
The erratic, “wild stallion”–As Andy Benoit of SI describes him–seems to be who Allen is. He’s improved incrementally, but not a ton. For a team with Super Bowl aspirations, Allen will have to be able to manage the game sufficiently.
New England Patriots: Cam Newton and No Brady!
Is Cam Newton healthy?? If he is, he’s a big time weapon playing for the best coaching staff in the league. If not, his career might be over. No one will know until we watch him play. He’s a guy who has seriously struggled with injuries over the past few years. Their wide receiving core is also a question, although I fully expect Josh McDaniels to help with that by cooking up some fun play designs with Newton as a runner that are meant to help the passing game by confusing the defense.
It’s also the first time Belichick is playing in New England without Brady. Both him and Brady want to prove they can have success without the other, and if the Pats are good with Cam, expect to hear more praise for Belichick and more questioning of Brady.
Miami Dolphins: FitzTua
Last year, Ryan Fitzpatrick stepped in midseason and balled out for a terrible team. For the wiley old gunslinger that has now played for eight teams, it might have been his best season.
Unfortunately, those who follow Ryan Fitzpatrick’s career know that he doesn’t tend to do this in successive seasons. In fact, he usually is amazing as a backup, then horrible once he becomes a starter. Then he’s cut, becomes a backup somewhere else, and becomes amazing again. It’s truly a strange thing.
The Dolphins also drafted QB Tua Tagovailoa, the Hawaiian lefty who was one of the best and most exciting players in Bama history. Fitz is starting, likely due to the wacky pandemic offseason, but I would expect to see Tua sooner rather than later, and I’m excited for when we do.
New York Jets: Will Adam Gase continue to run the Jets and Sam Darnold’s career into the ground?
Adam Gase was not a good hire. He was not good on the Dolphins. Rumors are he didn’t think his Quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, was any good. Tannehill would leave the Dolphins and go on to have a career year on the Titans and win 2 playoff games.
Gase came to New York and looked like a crazy man when he was introduced. (Rumors are that Gase doesn’t sleep much. Like at all. This is not healthy.) Gase also used smelling salts before the opening game last year. He again, looked crazy doing it. Now, players use smelling salts all the time. I’ve used them before. They wake you up and give you a quick jolt, which doesn’t last long at all. It’s really just to get yourself in the zone. But it’s weird for a coach to use them, since he’s not actually doing anything athletic.. and because it’s just a strange look for a coach. But maybe he needed to hype himself up because he only got four hours of sleep.
Gase has also repeatedly alienated his players. He immediately alienated Leveon Bell, the guy the Jets broke bank for at RB. Rumors are he doesn’t like him or want to play him. Bell may or may not be the same guy he was in Pittsburgh, but if you’re paying him that much for that premium a talent, you have to give him touches. It’s not clear Gase wants to.
Gase has also alienated their superstar on defense, Jamaal Adams. Adams was eventually traded, and he made sure to let know his feelings about Gase on the way out.
Recently, Gase tried to trade for running back Kalen Ballage, who led the Dolphins anemic running game last year to the tune of 135 yards all season for 1.8 yards per attempt (he was out-rushed by his quarterback on the season). The Dolphins would have released Ballage had Gase not tried to get him. SI Film Guru Andy Benoit described Ballage as having “one of the worst running back seasons of all time” and “looked every bit as bad on film as his numbers suggested”. The trade fell through when Ballage failed a physical, but it really speaks to Gase’s poor talent evaluation.
Lastly, what is the most important job for a coach? Developing their young QB. Sam Darnold came out of USC with a bunch of talent and potential but needing to be coached. He looked good late in his rookie season, before regressing early in his second year. Gase’s offenses seem to be too checkdown oriented for consistent success. Oh, that also reminds me, Gase apparently didn’t like Darnold out of that draft class either.
Young QBs need weapons, and the Jets are light on them. Good thing the Jets held onto their budding home run hitter, Robby Anderson, who had a nice rapport with Sam Darnold. Oh wait, they let him hit free agency. Now Darnold will be throwing to three journeymen and a rookie.
I’m starting to realize that the success of a young QB is contingent on the environment they’re in. I like Sam Darnold, and I feel like he could be good. But unfortunately, I fear that the Jets made a bad hire and as a result are going to ruin his career.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs: Super Bowl or bust..?
It’s hard to know what to say about this team. Their QB threw 50 touchdowns in his first season and won the Super Bowl with a bunch of pass-heavy comebacks in his second. He just signed a historical deal for half a billion dollars. He looks to be a transcendental player. The offense is loaded with a speedster no 1, a no 1 tight end, and two complementary speedsters. They drafted a RB in the first round who is a perfect fit for Andy Reid’s shotgun, screen, misdirection heavy offense. The Bashaud Breeland 4 game suspension on defense might hurt them. Otherwise, Super Bowl 42 Giants Hero Steve Spagnolo seems to have done a nice job turning their atrocious 2018 defense around. And their veteran head coach is one of the best in the league.
Winning two Super Bowls as a row is close to impossible, but what else is a reasonable expectation for this team? Patrick Mahomes is a gift, and unless something goes horribly wrong, we’re going to be talking about him for a long, long time.`
Denver Broncos: They may have the best WR core in the league.
Okay, maybe that belongs to the Chiefs. These guys aren’t yet proven. But this is now an incredibly exciting division that seems to have taken the attitude of, “we’re not going to stop the Chiefs playing defense because they’re too good, so let’s get a bunch of weapons on offense to try to keep pace scoring with them.” That may or may not be a good strategy, but it hopefully will lead to some exciting football.
The Broncos at WR after this year’s draft now are:
- Courtland Sutton, your prototypical X receiver. He’s 6’4” and averaged 15.4 yards per reception last year.
- Jerry Jeudy, the best route runner in the draft, at Z. His smoothness in and out of cuts is on another level. He was easily the best receiver in the draft, and has shades of Marvin Harrison.
- KJ Hamler at slot, who killed teams out of the slot with his explosiveness at Penn state.
- Noah Fant at tight end, who broke out as a rookie last year.
They have the potential to be ridiculously good. They have a guy who’s a perfect fit for each position. The last question? The QB. Second year player Drew Lock is very talented. He did a solid job taking over for Joe Flacco midseason last year, but he still needs to develop, and we need to see more. The offensive coordinator, Pat Shurmur, runs a west coast system. It’s not a perfect fit for Lock, but Shurmur also tends to be very good with QBs. I do think they’ll need to run the ball, which Shurmur can get away from at times. I’m really curious to see how this offense pans out.
Los Angeles Raiders: Can Derek Carr effectively utilize Henry Ruggs?
The Raiders needed a wide receiver this past year. They were counting on Antonio Brown to fill that role last year, but after his very public meltdown(s), the Raiders were forced to release him. With a high pick in this year’s draft, the Raiders had their choice of WR and were expected to take Jerry Jeudy, the best WR in the draft. Instead, they went for a different Bama WR in Henry Ruggs. He’s more of a speed guy and less of a route runner than Jeudy, but still a better route runner than most people probably think. The Raiders are counting on him to step in and fill the No 1 receiver role. And they’re counting on Carr to get the ball to him down the field for an offense that lacked a true deep threat last year.
The problem is, Carr is not really a deep thrower. He has a good arm, but he tends to prefer to get the ball out of his hands quickly. He’s not that patient in the pocket, he doesn’t like pressure, and he’s a bit of a checkdown guy. It’s not clear if he’ll be able to utilize Ruggs to his full potential.
There’s also the question of head coach Jon Gruden and whether he will get impatient with Carr. Carr is not a great QB, but he’s a good QB, and he played well for the Raiders last year, who were generally a work in progress in year 2 of Gruden’s 10 year contract. Nonetheless, Gruden is very tough on QBs, and you get the sense he’s not in love with Carr. It’s actually kind of funny: As an analyst on ESPN, Gruden pretty much loved every player. As a coach, he seems to hate every player.
Carr doesn’t seem to me to be the type of personality that will respond well to tough coaching. The Raiders brought in Marcus Mariota this offseason, who has own set of issues, but who Gruden has liked in the past, and who has started in this league before. I just get the sense that Gruden will get impatient with Carr, and Carr will start to feel the pressure and hear the clock ticking in his head.
Los Angeles Chargers: Can the Chargers win games without Philip Rivers?
It’s been a tough run for the Chargers as of recent. They were essentially forced to move from San Diego to LA when their owner pretty much sold them out. They lost a lot of fans along the way, and have been forced to play their games at a tiny soccer stadium over the last few years, where home team fan attendance was close to nonexistent.
They’ll at least get a nicer stadium this year, but questions still remain. This is a team that over the last decade, outside of a few playoff appearances, has specialized in keeping games close and finding spectacular ways to lose. That was their M.O. during the Philip Rivers era, and the team finally decided to part ways with their decade-plus starting QB last offseason. It wasn’t a super amicable divorce either, as there was very little appreciation shown for the Chargers’ all time passing leader. It seems the team grew weary of Rivers, who took a lot of criticism for his 20 interceptions last year. After years of keeping the ship running while things were imploding around him, the 38 year old immobile Rivers was unable to elevate the Chargers, especially when it came to their poor play at offensive line.
To be clear, Rivers has his flaws. He was, for the most part, not a good late game QB, and a lot of those 4th quarter losses are on him. But he also managed to keep the Chargers competitive as poor management led the team to fall apart around him. Considering what he’s been working with over recent years, especially at OL, he’s hardly alone in taking blame for the Chargers lack of success.
Now we’ll get to see if a clean break from the Rivers era will lead to a turnaround for LA. The Chargers have both veteran journeyman Tyrod Taylor and first round rookie Justin Herbert at QB. Both may see playing time, but I’m not sold that either can lift this franchise to success this year.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers: What will this offense look like? (Plus, more Rodgers/Lafleur/Love high school drama)
There’s been a LOT of drama surrounding the Packers as of recent, and most of it stems around their superstar quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, and his relationship with the organization. As of 2015, Rodgers hasn’t been playing as well as he used to (by his standards), and the team around him on offense also hasn’t been as talented on offense as it used to be. As a result, the Packers started having less success, and frustration grew. Rodgers relationship with his head coach, Mike McCarthy, began to sour, and McCarthy was fired midseason in 2018.
Last year, the Packers hired head coach Matt Lafleur, the first head coaching change of Rodgers’ career. There was some lingering doubt as to whether Rodgers, an improviser on the field, would fit in Lafleur’s highly structured offense. Reports were that as the Packers began to have less success late in the McCarthy era, Rodgers’ ego got a bit too big, and he began sabotaging play calls and creating drama. This doubt certainly wasn’t helped by some passive aggressive comments Aaron Rodgers made during the offseason after Lafleur was hired. But Lafleur did his best to diffuse any perception of tension.
Rodgers did not return to MVP form this past year, but the Packers had a lot of success, going 13-3 and making it to the NFC Championship game (albeit suffering a blowout loss once they got there). And Rodgers and Lafleur seemed to be getting along. All was well again, right?
Wrong. This offseason, the Packers took the simmering flame that was the fragile ego of Rodgers and dumped gasoline on it. After Rodgers publicly rallied the Packers to draft a WR, the Packers chose not to do so in the heaviest WR draft in years. They instead drafted a thumper RB (who doesn’t catch the ball) in the second round and traded up to draft a QB in the first round. It was a strange move for a team that supposedly is in contention mode, but this did more than just likely piss off Rodgers; it sent him two messages. 1) You are not in charge. 2) The end for you is near.
Rodgers is still the starting QB for this year, but every time something mildly ineffectual happens on the Packers offense, every time the head coach or QB makes a slight or bats an eye the wrong way, you’re going to hear stories about it. Drama, drama, and more drama is on the way.
On the field, what will the Packers offense look like? Matt Lafleur made it clear with this draft that he wants to run the football. What will that look like, and will they be successful in doing so? Will Rodgers be okay with that? Furthermore, how will the drafting of Love impact Rodgers? Will it light a fire under him and bring him back to MVP form? Or will we continue to see a frustrated and undisciplined player?
It’s a team that has put the spotlight on themselves largely by their own doing. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Detroit Lions: Can Matt Patricia prove his worth as a head coach?
In four seasons with the Lions, head coach Jim Caldwell went 11-5, 7-9, 9-7, and 9-7. That’s why the move to fire him for Matt Patricia was strange, as in his first two seasons with the Lions, Patricia has gone 6-10 and 3-12-1.
Patricia has a lot to prove, as it’s still not clear he’s head coaching material. He’s made just about every mistake that failed former Patriots coaches tend to make: Being too tough on his players, too rigid in his philosophy, and signing former Patriots to too much money. Ironically, these tend to be the opposite of what make Bill Belichick successful. Belichick is the opposite of rigid; he’s incredibly flexible and shifts his game plan just about every week and often within games. With regard to personnel, Belichick excels in finding underutilized players on other teams with niche skillsets. He accentuates their strengths, and then signs them for a bargain. When they then demand money, he is not afraid to release them to find the next role player that will take their place. Signing former Patriots to big money just means that you are signing players that Belichick thought weren’t worth paying. And yes, Bill Belichick is tough on his players, but he has earned that right and that respect because of his resume and results over the years. It has far less of an impact coming from newbie head coaches with no track record.
Patricia was the former Patriots defensive coordinator, which makes it alarming that the defense was the worst part of the Lions last year. He stubbornly plays a ton of man coverage, which the Lions were horrible at and did not have the pass rush to successfully execute. They’ve made some personnel adjustments this year, but early results do not bode well for Patricia.
Lastly, there’s the question of QB Matthew Stafford, the lone bright spot for the Lions last year who was having a career year before getting injured. Most are expecting more of the same for him this year, however I must point out that Stafford rarely puts back to back great seasons together. Peak Stafford is incredibly fun to watch, but he’s been plagued with inconsistency his entire career.
Minnesota Vikings: Can Justin Jefferson play on the outside?
Most people probably think Kirk Cousins is the biggest question here, but he really isn’t. In many ways, he’s become this era’s Tony Romo. He occasionally has bad primetime games, rivalry games, or playoff games that stick with people. But he’s generally an above average QB who functions exceptionally well with pieces around him and who is generally very consistent from year. We know who he is. No, he’s not Tom Brady, but neither are most QBs. (Romo was better than Cousins and different stylistically, but the perception is similar.)
Personally, I’m very curious about Justin Jefferson in his offense, and it has nothing to do with his talent level. He’s obviously incredibly talented, as he was a huge part of LSU’s record setting offense. It’s more about the fit in this scheme.
The Vikings run the Kubiak offense, which means outside zone, start with the running game, two tight ends, two wide receivers, and play action deep shots on early downs. This is where Kirk Cousins is at his best and where the Vikings offense is at their best. However, two wide receivers on the field means no slot receivers. And Justin Jefferson was almost exclusively a slot at LSU last year. As a route runner, he’s more of a technician than he is explosive. The Vikings system will be asking him to run explosive outside routes, and it’s not clear that that’s his game.
Furthermore, now that the Vikings traded Stefon Diggs to the Bills, Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson will likely be their two outside receivers. That means that when the Vikings do go into three wide receiver sets, at least one of these two will have to stay on the outside. This also poses a potential problem since Thielen is also very good from the slot, yet that spot likely will belong to Jefferson now.
Again, Jefferson is talented, and none of this is to say that he can’t play on the outside. It’s just that it’s not what he was asked to do in college.
Chicago Bears: Will the passing game do anything?
The Bears have stubbornly refused to give up on their QB Mitchell Trubisky, despite all indications that he is not fit for the part. (I don’t know economics, but I think this is called the sunken cost fallacy..?) The sad thing is that the Bears could probably compete if they had remotely competent QB play, but they just haven’t wanted to pursue other options, and it could end up sinking this coaching staff.
The Bears did bring in Nick Foles this offseason as competition for Trubisky, but that is problematic for a few reasons. One, despite his cinderella Super Bowl run where he was truly spectacular in a win over the Patriots, and despite his ability to look the part in short spurts, Foles is generally a backup QB in this league. Two, they paid him way too much money. And three, despite that money, they still named Trubisky the starter this year. It seems to me that the Bears have two backup QBs on their roster, and that will limit them severely.
Matt Nagy gets a lot of credit for being an offensive guru, but it hasn’t quite materialized yet. It’s hard to tell if that is due to Nagy himself or whether he is just in a bad situation because of his Quarterback. Ideally, the Bears rely on the running game this year, but David Montgomery seems to be battling injury, and Nagy seems to be hesitant to fully commit to the run at times, which is not uncommon for coaches from the Andy Reid school. The Bears will need the defense to carry this team, and we’ll see what happens. Two years ago they were phenomenal, and last year they predictably regressed. At the end of the day, it’s hard to see this team going too far without getting more out of their passing game.
NFC East
New York Giants: Can the defense keep this team in games?
Ok, there are more questions than that, but let’s start with that one. This defense has been atrocious in recent years (especially last year). They do get a new coordinator. Xavier Mckinney, the versatile Safety out of Alabama, was a great draft pick (and he’s injured now, because of course). Deandre Baker, the first round rookie corner from last year, was just released after serious legal troubles were added to a very poor rookie year. Logan Ryan was a really important free agent pickup, and he’ll pair with James Bradberry at corner, who has played well in the past. The Giants drafted Darnay Holmes for their slot corner, who I was not a big fan of at UCLA, but who many seem to think has potential. We picked up some linebackers which could go either way, and there’s still Jabril Peppers at safety. Pass rush, despite the resigning of Leonard Williams, remains a question. So it’s just not entirely clear what we have at this point.
On offense, Daniel Jones looks to build on a promising rookie season. First round draft pick Andrew Thomas hopes to stabilize the long maligned offensive line, which Gettleman has certainly tried to address. Nate Solder is certainly not long for this (football) world. It’s fair to wonder about Daniel Jones without QB guru Pat Shurmur, but Jason Garrett will likely try to start with the run game moreso than Shurmur did. A good idea, but whether that will work depends on if the line can block and whether Saquon Barkley can stay healthy following an injury plagued 2019. They do have some weapons at WR with the combo of Tate, Slayton, Shepard, and Engram (health always an issue). And Jones will have to clean up the fumbling. We released our bad kicker after he sped through a traffic light drunk and crashed, and Graham Gano should give us a big, reliable leg there.
And lastly, there’s the first time head coach for a team that has struggled to find continuity and culture since Tom Coughlin was shown the door. Following the tepid Shurmur and the clueless McAdoo, the Giants went for a big personality in the unknown Joe Judge. He wants discipline and toughness, and he wants you to know it. How will this translate? He could be a hidden gem. Or he could be a crazy person, as indicated by, among other things, his refusal to call players by their name (or even have their names on practice jerseys) and his insistence on the team and staff running laps for every minor infraction. We won’t know who Judge is as a coach or what a Joe Judge coached team looks like until the Giants step on the field, but if it’s bad, it at least seems like it will be fun bad with Judge.
Dallas Cowboys: Can Mike McCarthy get this team over the hump?
Despite a career year from QB Dak Prescott (who Jerry Jones still refuses to give a long term deal), the Cowboys still went 8-8 last year. Longtime Jones favorite Jason Garrett got a long leash with this team, but it finally turned out to be one middling season too many for the Cowboys brass.
In comes Mike McCarthy, who seems to be the same type of uninspiring, non-creative, and middling type of coach that Garrett was. But the Cowboys know that this team can compete, and didn’t want to go through a full rebuild with a first time head coach. So they went for the known veteran in McCarthy, with some hope that he changed his more outdated ways during his year out of coaching.
There’s really no excuse for this Cowboys team not to take the next step. They have a big time QB, and maybe the best set of skill players in the league on offense: Ezekial Elliott at running back, and Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and now Oklahoma superstar Ceedee Lamb at WR. If you don’t know who those guys are, suffice to say, they’re good. Their offensive line ain’t bad either.
But this is the Cowboys. Unless you’re still living in the 90s, have we come to expect anything other than disappointment from this Jerry Jones regime?
Philadelphia Eagles: Can Carson Wentz become the big play superstar QB we’ve all been expecting him to become?
Carson Wentz came to the NFL an incredibly skilled prospect. Big body, big arm, big time thrower, and escapability too. But that was 2016, and outside of a 2017 MVP level start before getting hurt (and Nick Foles leading the Super Bowl win in his place), Wentz has been inconsistent. Injuries, both on his part and the part of the wide receivers, haven’t helped. But too often, Wentz has been relegated to a checkdown QB when he has the talent to be so much more.
That’s why the Eagles went out and drafted Jalen Reagor, to finally give this offense some speed. Desean Jackson comes back too, but counting on him is dicey considering he never stays healthy. Wentz has been getting a lot of excuses over the years, some of them justified, but he’s not a young QB anymore. It’s time for him to put it all together, and if he doesn’t, a lot of questions are going to come the Eagles’ way.
Washington No-Names: What do they have at the QB position? And are there enough weapons on offense to support him?
Washington drafted Dwayne Haskins last year, who lit it up in his one year as a starter at Ohio State. He didn’t start last year, and looked lost when he finally saw the field, although he did improve as the season went along. This offseason, the Redskins traded for Kyle Allen, not a great sign of confidence in Haskins considering that Allen was awful in relief of Cam Newton last year.
Haskins has the skill set to play, but there didn’t seem to be a lot of confidence around him last year. Furthermore, this offense is startlingly thin. They just released Adrian Peterson, confirming what is essentially a rebuild. Terry McLaurin flashed last year, but overall this offense is full of nobodies.
Fortunately, the defense is stacked: Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Ronald Darby, Landon Collins, Kendall Fuller, Khaleke Hudson. This could be one of the best defenses in the league and one of the worst offenses in the league, so you could see a lot of 10-3 games. The question is, which side will Washington be on?
At the end of the day, this is a team that couldn’t even figure out their team name when they were finally forced by sponsors to drop the “Redskins” name, a move they long resisted. So maybe winning football games is a bit too high of an expectation. And in addition to being terrible at football (his fan base agrees), Dan Snyder is also a terrible human being that, among other things, essentially sex trafficked his cheerleaders. Why is he still the team owner and not in jail?
AFC South
Houston Texans: What does this offense look like without DeAndre Hopkins?
Texans QB Deshaun Watson is one of the best and most exciting young QBs in the league. He’ll be going into the season with a fresh new contract, but without his No 1 wide receiver in Deandre Hopkins. Hopkins was Watson’s go-to guy. He’s one of the best WR’s in the league, and probably the best at coming down with contested catches while covered. He was truly Watson’s safety blanket, and Watson frequently looked his way in crunch time.
Bill O’Brien, the much maligned head coach / GM of the Texans, traded Hopkins for reasons that just don’t pass muster. And to make it worse, he didn’t even get much value for Hopkins. Now Watson is going into the season without his No 1 playmaker, and that likely has far reaching impact for the rest of the offense as well as the team in general.
Houston doesn’t actually have a bad WR core, per se. Brandon Cooks, Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, Randall Cobb, and Keke Coute are a solid group if they can stay healthy. But again, the dynamic of the offense changes without the go-to No 1 guy that draws all the double teams. Maybe Watson becomes more of a ball distributor, like Stafford did after Calvin Johnson left. But overall, it’s hard to see how this move makes this team better.
And as good as Watson is, the team will need a running game, which is also a question mark at this point. Carlos Hyde ran well last year, and he’s gone now. (Strangely, he always seems to run well, but teams don’t like to resign him for some reason..) The Texans are hoping they have the 2015 version of David Johnson, not the 2019 version, who looked washed. But this is a long shot. It’s hard to ignore the fact that as soon as Arizona swapped David Johnson for Carlos Hyde last year, their running game suddenly exploded. The Texans also have Duke Johnson at tailback, but he’s more of a receiving back.
It’s looking like it’s once again on Watson to carry this team, and this time, he’ll have to do so without his No 1 wide receiver.
Tennessee Titans: Can Tanehill keep it up?
Ryan Tanehill took over for Marcus Mariota at QB midseason. All he did was have a career year, completing 70% of his passes and throwing 22 TD to just 6 INT for a whopping 10.2 yards per attempt. He also led playoff upsets in New England and in Baltimore, before falling to the Chiefs 24-35 in the AFC Championship. The weirdest part is, Tanehill spent 6 years in Miami before last year, and we never saw any indication that he was capable of this level of production.
It seemed to be the perfect fit of team, coach, and QB. The Titans started on the ground with their power runner Derrick Henry, and from there ran play action passes and bootlegs to their star studded rookie WR AJ Brown. Arthur Smith was a great playcaller as well. It all worked wonders, but there’s no doubt that Tannehill delivered and was a big part of it all.
Now we’ll get to see if last year was a fluke or if Tannehill was for real. We’ll also get to see if the Titans can continue being as dominant on the ground as they were, as well as if Mike Vrabel at head coach is legit and will break the spell of no success for Belichick disciples.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Can Gardner Minshew be a franchise QB?
Gardner Minshew, the sixth round pick last year out of Washington State, wasn’t expected to be much in the NFL. But after Nick Foles got hurt, “Minshew Mania” became a fan favorite, what with his charismatic moustache as well as his penchant for making fun, improvisational plays.
Minshew’s rookie year was up and down, but he showed just enough for the Jaguars to let him start this year to see if there’s something there. It’s a team that’s rebuilding. They just released Leonard Fournette, who accounted for 1/3 of their offense last year. Almost every player from their 2017 NFC Championship run is gone from the team. If Minshew doesn’t show that he can be the guy this year, they’ll likely draft a QB next year. Opportunities don’t last long for sixth round picks, so Minshew better make the most of it. Unfortunately, he’s not playing with a ton around him.
Indianapolis Colts: Does Philip Rivers have anything left?
The Colts brought Rivers in to be a bridge QB. I’m probably one of the few who thinks it could work. Yes, he struggled last year. That was also after playing for years for a losing organization that was going down the tubes. The offensive line was also terrible, and Rivers is a pocket QB. Fortunately, he’ll be playing for maybe the best offensive line in Football in Indy. Head Coach Frank Reich designs offense well and gives his QBs easy throws, and Rivers is familiar with Reich, who used to be Quarterbacks coach and later Offensive Coordinator in San Diego with Rivers. Let’s not forget that the Colts drafted Jonathan Taylor, who may well have been the best runner in the draft. The change of scenery could do wonders for Rivers, who is still a smart QB, and who simply is on a better team now than he was last year.
If it doesn’t work out, I still like the Colts draft–Michael Pittman at WR, Jonathan Taylor at RB, and Jacob Eason at QB. They also snagged kicker Rodrigo Blankenship, who was a beast at Georgia. Sad to see Vinatieri go, but Blankenship should be able to step right in.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers: Super Bowl Hangover for Shanahan, Garoppolo and Co?
Kyle Shanahan put together a great season for these niners, but he and his quarterback were under fire this offseason for giving up a 4th quarter lead in the Super Bowl. The criticism probably wasn’t entirely fair, but that’s the way it goes. Shanahan and Garoppolo will have to prove they can put last season behind them and move forward this year. Super Bowl losses can be hard to get over, and teams are going to be more prepared for the Niners after last year. Not to mention, the Cardinals will likely be much more challenging in this division this year. The good news is that Shanahan is one of the best in the business, and Garoppolo is still young and, despite his flaws, coming off a pretty good season. The addition of Brandon Aiyuk at receiver should be a big help as well.
Arizona Cardinals: How will the addition of Hopkins affect this offense?
The Arizona Cardinals were the beneficiaries of Bill O’Brien’s poor decision to part ways with Hopkins, and all of a sudden this Arizona offense looks very dangerous. Kyler Murray is a playmaker, and the addition of Hopkins could quickly accelerate his development. They also bring back Kenyan Drake, the ageless Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, and Andy Isabella. It’s a dangerous arsenal of offensive weapons. I’m curious to see what Kliff Klingsbsury does with this offense schematically. We know he comes from the air raid background. Early in the season last year, he used a lot of tempo and four/five wide receiver sets, before switching to a run heavy 2 tight end approach when Drake was added. It’s still not entirely clear how the Air Raid fits into the NFL, something I think Kingsbury is still in the process of figuring it out. Due to that ambiguity, Kyler Murray was more random than rhythm on offense. That might end up being his game in general, but it’s an interesting marriage that seems to be still figuring out how to play dynamic college ball in the NFL.
Seattle Seahawks: Can they get over the hump?
Early in Russell Wilson’s career, he was a game manager on a team with a great run game and defense. The opposite now seems to be true. The rest of the team is average, and Wilson is relied on to keep them in the game and pull out magic in the 4th quarter. It works more often than not, but the team seems to have a ceiling where they’re in the 9 win range (with a couple extra bouncing their way if lucky), before losing in round 1 or 2 of the playoffs, usually by falling behind and having a Wilson comeback fall short. A lot of the criticism has been directed at coaching with their run-heavy approach. That’s fair, but can also be a double edged sword because of Wilson’s improvisational style. Ultimately, it seems like this team is going to keep relying on Wilson to bail them out, and it’s hard to see them winning another Super Bowl that way.
Los Angeles Rams: Can Goff be a consistent QB under pressure?
Not too long ago, Sean McVay was looked at as a genius, so much so that pretty much every team went out of their way to hire someone who was connected to him in some way, no matter how minimal the connection. Now that reputation has largely faded. This team was one offensive drive away from beating the Patriots in the Superbowl in 2018, and it seems like that was their peak. They went all in on paying a bunch of pieces that are no longer on the team, and now their identity is somewhat unclear. Sean McVay excelled with his play action designs off the running game, but those get hard to replicate when the defense has exposure to them, and when you’re not running the ball as well as you used to. Goff is not bad, but he’s not great either. He’ll throw for a bunch of yards one week, then have a dud the next. The real concern is his play under pressure, where he loses a great deal of effectiveness. Some now believe that his success during their Super Bowl year was largely due to McVay, not only via play design but through dictating the defense to Goff in his headset, a trick the Patriots figured out in the Super Bowl.
Without Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks on defense, and without Ndamukong Suh, Marcus Peters, and Aqib Talib on defense, McVay will have to once again reach into his bag of tricks and find a new identity in order to prove that he wasn’t a one hit wonder. If he can’t, this Goff and McVay marriage may be headed for divorce.
NFC South
The Tompa Bay Buccaneers: Does Brady still have it?
We’re now in uncharted waters for the largely proclaimed Greatest Of All Time, who looks to continue to be an effective force at 43 years old. This is ancient for Quarterbacks, and generally for any football player that isn’t a kicker. Tired of New England’s (read: Bill Belichick’s) lack of appreciation, Tom decided to take his talents toward South Beach and pair up with the self-proclaimed Quarterback Whisperer in Bruce Arians (that’s the title of his book, which, by the way, is definitely worth a read). Arians has coached Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, and Andrew Luck, and how he looks to add Tom Brady to his resume.
Like an aging James Bond in Daniel Craig’s upcoming finale, can Brady show that he’s still got it? He wasn’t that good last year, but he’ll be inheriting a much better situation with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, OJ Howard, Cameron Brate, and a newly unretired Rob Gronkowski to throw to. Arians likes to throw the ball down the field and expose his QBs to hits, but he may adjust his system with Tom on board.
This is one of the most interesting storylines in the league. Tom has broken every expectation at just about every point in his career, and he’s fought off father time in a way that literally no QB ever has. Now, we finally get to see the unthinkable: Tom Brady outside of New England.
Will it work? I’ll be honest, I have no idea. But I can’t wait to find out.
New Orleans Saints: Can they get past the hump in the playoffs?
Brees is close to the end of his career, and he’ll likely be exiting as one of the most under-appreciated QBs of his generation. Lost in the shadows of Peyton Manning vs Tom Brady early in his career and Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and the youngsters later in his career, Brees continues to put up elite numbers year after year after year, and actually has outplayed both his elder contemporaries as of recent.
The difference between Brees and his contemporaries is that his defense is pretty much always terrible. When his poor defenses aren’t keeping him out of the playoffs, they’re generally choking away leads in the playoffs.
And sometimes, it’s just straight bad luck. Three years ago, the Saints lost during the Minneapolis Miracle, when they were unable to make a tackle with no time left and left a receiver running toward the endzone. Two years ago, the Saints were in field goal range late and a blatant pass interference was not called. Had it been called, the Saints could have ran out the clock before kicking a field goal, but the ensuing time after the incomplete pass left allowed the Rams to get into field goal range and tie it up, and later win in overtime. And last year, the Saints lost in overtime and Brees did not get a chance to touch the football. Kyle Rudolph gave a slight pushoff in the endzone on his game winning TD fade. It was not as blatant as two years ago, and may have been within acceptable contact for the playoffs. Nonetheless, the refs refused to review the play, despite the fact that pass interference reviews were specifically instituted due to the egregious miss the refs made in the Saints loss the year before. The review rule was nixed after this game, as it was never properly applied.
And that’s just the recent playoff losses for Brees. I could also tell you about the time the Saints gave up 41 points to the 7-9 Matt Hasselbeck led wild-card Seahawks, or how Brees led 2 go ahead touchdown drives late in the 4th quarter at San Francisco, and his defense gave up the lead after both. But I won’t.
You only get these opportunities so many times, and they’re running out for Brees, who only has one ring from 2009 despite being one of the best Quarterbacks ever since then. The Saints offense is now easier to defend than it used to be, as the passing game is now a mostly short game due to Brees’s waning arm strength. This has made them easier to defend in the playoffs in recent years. Still, at some point, the defense has to make a stop, and the luck has to turn toward the Saints. Right..?
Atlanta Falcons: Can Dan Quinn and Thomas Dmitroff stop wasting Matt Ryan’s prime?
Matt Ryan has been one of the more underrated QBs since he came into the league. Maybe it’s because his play style is not that exciting; he’s a boring old pocket passer who relies on timing, rhythm, and anticipation more than outstanding physical traits. Maybe it’s because his defense gave up a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl, despite him having one of the best games ever for a Super Bowl loss. Maybe it’s because he didn’t win a playoff game until his fifth season, which is usually way too late for a narrative to form about a QB. Maybe it’s because he plays with Julio Jones, one of the best wide receivers in the league, and people tend to judge QBs on their wide receiver talent (which has the least effect on QBs), as opposed to every other part of the team. But whatever the reason, he’s been one of the best. In fact, Matt Ryan has been better than Aaron Rodgers since 2016, and I have zero hesitance in saying that. But you wouldn’t know it by looking at his team, and especially his defense, which has repeatedly been awful.
Matt Ryan’s 2018 season was one of the most wasted QB seasons I’ve ever seen. Ryan completed 69% of his passes for 4924 yards and 35 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions, but the falcons were only 7-9. Thomas Dmitroff has done a terrible job building this team. Last year, before their bye, the Falcons started the season 1-7. After the bye, they finished the season 6-2, bringing them to another 7-9 season. Ownership decided to reward Quinn and Dmitroff for the 6-2 finish instead of punishing them for the inexcusable 1-7 start.
Not to mention, the Falcons also can’t really pass protect or run the football. That’s a problem for a pocket passer like Ryan. The Falcons decided to “solve” their running back problem by signing Todd Gurley, the former Rams superstar whose career derailed due to arthritis in his knees.
Unfortunately, Ryan’s prime may already be over. Last year was a step back from 2018, and his arm strength seems to be waning. But the QB is not the problem. It’s everything else that’s the problem, yet the organization continues to avoid fixing it.
Carolina Panthers: Can Teddy Bridgewater be a starting QB?
Teddy Bridgewater was drafted to be the future QB for the Vikings in 2014. He had a few okay seasons before getting hurt and eventually bouncing around as a backup. Last year he filled in respectably on the Saints when Drew Brees was hurt, although it was mostly the defense that kept them in games. Now he’ll head to Carolina to be Matt Rhule’s starting QB after Rhule signed a big contract after turning around Baylor.
Bridgewater is a smart, mobile QB, with limited arm strength. Rhule is a first time NFL guy who was highly coveted, so I’m curious to see what the team looks like under him. The Panthers poached Joe Brady from LSU for the offensive coordinator job. Brady was formerly on the Saints, and helped modernize LSU’s offense for Joe Burrow last year. But that offense was largely a down the field offense, which is not Bridgewater’s game, so the Panthers will have to adjust.
Honestly though, there’s really not much to say about this team right now, because they’re a team in complete rebuilding mode, and they frankly aren’t going to be that good.
Well, that’s about it! I think I hit everyone. I can’t wait to see how everything turns out. Let’s hope for a successful and safe NFL season this year!
Cary Krongard's Football Blog 