The State of the Patriots, 2023 Edition (Guest Post)

The following guest post was written by Gaurav Verma and edited by Cary Krongard.

Last spring, I wrote a blog post detailing the Patriots’ many failures in roster building leading into last year’s draft and how they would lead to mediocrity in the 2022 season and beyond. Unfortunately, many of my predictions and criticisms came to fruition over the course of the season. Namely, Belichick’s hirings of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge to run the offense will go down as the biggest disaster of his coaching career, as well as among the worst personnel decisions in recent NFL history. Just as I had warned, the offensive talent around second-year QB Mac Jones was middling at best, and those factors combined to see him regress after a promising rookie season. Furthermore, the Patriots’ decision to implement and then quickly scrap the Shanahan style offense resulted in a largely wasted 2022 draft class, especially on offense. The one area where the team exceeded expectations was on defense, where jumps from young players and strong performances from veteran leaders led to the team having one of the better defenses in the NFL. Additionally, much to my surprise, the Belichick sons proved they belonged in the NFL on their own merit. Jerod Mayo, widely respected even last year, continued to grow as a coach and appears to be the Head Coach in waiting in Foxboro – another positive development. In aggregate, the situation at Patriot Place does not seem quite as bleak as it was at this time last year. Nonetheless, the team still seems destined for NFL mediocrity over the next few years, not having come close to doing what it takes to catch up to the NFL’s leading contenders nor making the tough call to punt their championship window a few years later in favor of a true rebuild.

The Patriots finished last season 8-9, their second time with a losing record and missing the playoffs in the past three years. This was largely due to an anemic offense and disastrous special teams unit, both which have been improved on in free agency. On offense, the Patriots significantly upgraded their staff. Bill O’Brien should be eons better than Patricia as an Offensive Coordinator and Judge as QB Coach. Patricia also worked extensively with the offensive line last season, a major weakness for the team, but Adrian Klemm from Oregon should be a significant upgrade as well. In terms of personnel, Juju Smith-Schuster should add a little more dynamism to the offense relative to the recently departed Jacobi Meyers. At tight end, Mike Gesicki should provide more production than Jonnu Smith as a complement to Hunter Henry. Tackles Riley Reiff and Calvin Anderson are NFL-caliber tackles and should improve the overall depth on the offensive line, although both battled injuries throughout training camp and are question marks to begin the season. New running back Ezekiel Elliot, while past his prime, should be a good backup to lead-back Rhamondre Stevenson, who has emerged as one of the better RBs in the NFL. On Special Teams, Joe Judge plans to work more with this unit, and getting standout Cody Davis back from injury, re-signing Matthew Slater, and bringing in ST standout Chris Broad from Detroit should help resolve some of their woes from last year. On defense, the team is retaining all its key players from last year except for Devin McCourty and should see some jumps from young players such as CBs Marcus and Jack Jones.

In a nutshell, the Patriots did fairly well in free agency, but given how they compare to other teams—especially in their division—the team did not do nearly enough to vault themselves into the upper echelon of the league. Last year, the Patriots finished a whopping six games behind the division winning Bills, who look just as strong as they did last year. The Pats also finished a game behind the Dolphins, who further improved by trading for Jalen Ramsey—with the pick the Pats sent to Miami for Devante Parker no less, to add insult to injury—giving them a Pro Bowl duo at cornerback. Should QB Tua Tagovailoa remain healthy, it’s likely the talent gap between the Dolphins and Pats will widen even further this season. Lastly, the Patriots finished just one game ahead of the Jets, who traded for Aaron Rodgers, signed Dalvin Cook, and have a young and improving defense. With Rodgers on board replacing the ineffective Zach Wilson alone, the Jets have overtaken the Patriots talentwise, at least on paper. As such, it is very conceivable that the Patriots finish last in their own division, making a playoff berth nearly impossible. 

For the Patriots to show progress and again become an attractive destination for free agents and trade-seeking veterans, I believe they need to win a playoff game this season. Team Owner Robert Kraft’s public comments seem to indicate that this is his expectation as well. The team faces an uphill climb to make this a reality, especially considering that the Patriots face one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL in 2023 (the most difficult according to some sources like Sharp Football Analysis). In my mind, the Patriots went into the draft needing 3-4 impact players to compete with the top teams in the NFL. These included a true WR1, a young cornerstone offensive tackle, a shutdown corner, and one more impact front seven player given the high-quality offenses they will have to face if they want to be a contender. This is in addition to Mac Jones bouncing back from his sophomore slump and building on the promise he showed in his rookie season to establish himself as one of the NFL’s better quarterbacks. This lack of high-end roster talent showed up last year, as the Patriots recorded just one win all season against teams that made the playoffs, which won’t cut it in 2023. 

To their credit, the Patriots have gotten better at drafting over the past few years and have used the draft to add talent to fill some of those roster holes. After a miserable stretch in the draft from 2016-19, the Patriots strung together solid drafts in 2020 and 2021—although they have jettisoned many of their 2022 selections, particularly on offense. In 2023, I thought the Patriots had a good but not great draft. First Round pick, CB Christian Gonzalez from Oregon, was seen as a top-10 talent and could check off the need for a CB1 as early as this season. Second Round selection Keion White, viewed by many as a first-round talent, should provide the necessary talent infusion in the front seven—even if it was a lesser need than OT or WR. I was initially skeptical of the team’s selection of Marte Mapu in the third round, but he looks to be a versatile chess piece able to contribute at both LB and Safety this year.

The team also closed the draft strong. LSU WR Kayshon Boutte came into the season as a projected top 10 pick but slipped due to a lingering ankle injury and clashes with new LSU Coach Brian Kelly and his staff. However, scouts have compared his talent to that of Deebo Samuel and Stephon Diggs. While those projections might be optimistic, Boutte has as much upside as anyone in the Patriots’ draft class and could be the impact WR that the team has needed for years if he puts everything together. Liberty WR Demario Douglas is another prospect with some upside, and Michigan State’s Bryce Baringer was viewed as the best Punter in the draft and should help the team improve in that department, where they were worst in the league last year. Lastly, Cornerbacks Ameer Speed and Isaiah Bolden have intriguing physical skillsets and played well this preseason, though Bolden will miss the year after suffering a scary head injury in a preseason game versus the Packers.

The Patriots could, however, have been more aggressive in the fourth to fifth rounds to fill holes with blue chip players. Center Jake Andrews was widely viewed as a reach at the top of the fourth round and fellow fourth round selection Sidy Sow is a project they are looking to convert to tackle but is unlikely to be a key factor this year. The Patriots’ third fourth round pick, Chad Ryland, was viewed by many as the second-best kicker in the draft, but his scouting report does not indicate that he’s a special prospect. Although he’s displayed a big leg in Training Camp, drafting kickers has almost always been a risk not worth taking, particularly that early in the draft. Fifth round selection Atonio Mafi looks to be the strongest of the bunch and is poised to be a top backup at Guard this season.

While each of these picks are individually defensible, in aggregate, they represent a misuse of assets if the goal is to compete this year. The Patriots could have packaged some of these picks to move up in the second or third round and either target playmakers for Mac Jones or an offensive tackle to protect his blindside. Mid-round picks can also fetch talented veterans in a trade—as evidenced by the Philadelphia Eagles trade for Lions RB D’Andre Swift—and the team could also have used some of their picks on a trade for an impact veteran that could bolster the roster this year. Given that opportunity cost, for the Patriots to have utilized their picks in Rounds 4-5 on reaches at positions not aligned with their core needs was a puzzling strategy.

Ultimately, while the Patriots did improve the team in all three phases of the game through the draft and free agency, they did not do enough to compete for more than a wild card spot and first-round exit. Just as they have in previous years, they passed on opportunities to be aggressive to move up their championship window, with their failure to land DeAndre Hopkins a prime example. They also chose not to make the tough choices necessary to accumulate draft capital to build a contender in the future. Instead, they again chose a middle-ground that seems likely to result in mediocrity for years to come.

Given his age, it is understandable that Belichick likely does not want to be around for a long rebuild. But if that is the case, he needs to stockpile the talent necessary to be a contender ASAP. Belichick has certainly earned himself a long leash, but the team faces an inflection point this season. Should they defy expectations and come out of the gates looking like a solid playoff team, they should be aggressive in adding impact players at the trade deadline this year as well as next offseason to become one of the NFL’s better teams before Mac Jones’s rookie contract is up and he requires a raise. However, if the team seems destined for mediocrity or worse again at the deadline, they need to make the tough but necessary decision to pursue a complete rebuild. Trading older veterans like Matthew Judon, Adrian Phillips, Kendrick Bourne, and Hunter Henry, who may not be impact players when the team’s window reopens after a rebuild in a few years, could help them recoup valuable draft capital they need to build a contender in the future. 

Given his accomplishments, Belichick deserves the opportunity to coach the team should they pursue either of those routes. The Patriots cannot, however, remain mired in mediocrity for years to come. And if Belichick is unwilling to make the changes needed to avoid that fate, Mr. Kraft should let him go at the end of the season and hire someone willing to make the decisions required to make the Patriots a contender again, be it next season or after a rebuild.

About The Author:

Gaurav Verma is a recent graduate of The MIT Sloan School of Management with an MBA in Finance. At Sloan, he served on the Leadership Team for the 2023 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (SSAC). Prior to business school, he spent four years in Investment Banking after graduating from Johns Hopkins University. He was born and raised in the Boston-area, and is an avid sports fan. He can be reached via email at gauravv@mit.edu.

Guest Post: The Patriots Have Lost Their Way

The following guest post was written by Gaurav Verma and edited by Cary Krongard.

For nearly 20 years, the New England Patriots were the team to beat in the NFL. With six Super Bowl wins in nine appearances and several more AFC Championship Games, the organization set a standard for success that is unlikely to ever be matched in the NFL, or in team professional sports in general. However, the Patriots of today are a middling team with a bleak future ahead of them unless they make drastic changes to their roster. While it was masked for a few years by the presence of Tom Brady, it has become clear since his departure that the Patriots’ current position is a result of Bill Belichick’s poor decision making as a General Manager; in particular, his tendency to build his support staff like Donald Trump did his administration: hiring yes-men and his family and family friends over the most talented individuals. As a result, the Patriots continue to repeat their mistakes in roster building – something Belichick would never tolerate on the field – as the rest of the league passes them by.

As it currently stands, the Patriots have almost no cap space and need to replace Starting Guard Shaq Mason (assuming Mike Onwenu replaces the recently departed Ted Karras), two starting linebackers (Dont’a Hightower and Kyle Van Noy), and arguably their best defensive player in J.C. Jackson. Although many in New England are excited about the acquisition of DeVante Parker, he is a complementary piece, and not one that meaningfully upgrades an anemic passing attack. The team still needs to find Mac Jones a bona-fide WR1 to increase the explosiveness of the offense. Despite what some homer fans say about the depth at the position, no defenses are scared of covering the Legion of Average.

While the Patriots have long believed in building through the draft, they only have three picks in the top-100 selections in this year’s draft. This will make a talent infusion through this route all the more difficult, which should have resulted in a more aggressive approach in free agency. While many other contending teams—most notably the Los Angeles Rams—have freed up cap space through simple restructures in order to pursue free agents to bolster their rosters, the Patriots have inexplicably refused to do so. Instead, they have cleared cap with puzzling moves that make the team worse, like the Mason trade or the Van Noy release. While restructures do push cap hits to later years, the salary cap is expected to dramatically rise as the NFL puts the effects of the COVID season in the rearview mirror and begins to profit from highly lucrative new media rights deals. This offsets the risk of such maneuvers. With the first wave of free agency behind us, it will be very challenging for the Patriots to put an improved team on the field next year given their limited resources and unwillingness to restructure existing contracts. This inaction is nothing short of a failure in roster building–especially given the rapid improvement of other teams in the AFC this offseason–and an indication that the Patriots might be too stuck in their ways to compete in today’s NFL.

It is important to understand the core reason that the Patriots are in the position they are now. Repeated failures in the NFL Draft required the team to spend big in free agency last year to even put an NFL caliber roster on the field. The blame for this lies on Belichick and his unwavering trust in former General Manager Nick Caserio. The results have been disastrous. Of their 32 picks in the 2016-19 drafts, only four figure to play a key role in the upcoming season (RB Damien Harris, P Jake Bailey, the oft-injured LT Isaiah Wynn, and LB Ja’Whuan Bentley). Of their 25 picks in the top-100 from 2014-20, only Joe Thuney, Tre Flowers, Harris, and Kyle Dugger have produced for the Patriots at a level consistent with their draft position, with Jimmy Garoppolo doing so outside Foxboro as well. Selections of players like Aaron Dobson, Dominique Easley, Cyrus Jones, N’Keal Harry, and Joejuan Williams have come to exemplify the team’s futility in the draft. One needs to look all the way back to 2013 to find the last time the team was able to come away from the draft with three or more non special teams long-term contributors (Jamie Collins, Logan Ryan, Duron Harmon). 

Although the team has had some success with later picks such as James White, Ja’Whuan Bentley, Deatrich Wise, and offensive linemen like Shaq Mason, Ted Karras, and Mike Onwenu, it has been abundantly clear that the team needed to change their approach or their decision makers in order to achieve better success in the draft. Yet, that never happened. The Patriots stuck with Caserio as Belichick’s right-hand man until he departed for the Texans following the 2020 season. At that point, team owner Robert Kraft publicly called out Belichick for his poor draft record and demanded changes be made to the approach. As such, the Patriots implemented a more collaborative approach in 2021, with new voices from outside the organization taking on leading roles as in addition to a greater emphasis on the scouting team’s opinion as opposed to those of Belichick’s coach friends in College Football. The results thus far have been good, with Mac Jones, Christian Barmore, and Rhamondre Stevenson all having served as valuable contributors in their rookie seasons. But the infusion of talent was not enough to save the team from the position they currently are in, and it falls on Belichick for failing to make the necessary adjustments until it was too late. 

Belichick’s roster management skills over the past year or two have been especially puzzling. He traded the former DPOY in Stephon Gilmore for a paltry 6^th round pick, repeated that mistake by letting Pro Bowl CB J.C. Jackson walk for no compensation in return, and recently traded Shaq Mason – who remains one of the better Guards in the NFL and is on a reasonable contract – for a measly 5^th round pick. Letting major talent walk has always been the Patriot Way (much to the chagrin of the team’s spoiled fanbase), but the approach this time around has been different. Belichick used to make it a point to let go of players a year too early rather than too late. As such, he was able to recoup 1^st or 2^nd round draft picks when he traded the likes of Deion Branch, Richard Seymour, and Chandler Jones. In 2009, even with Tom Brady returning, Belichick saw it as integral to getting a return on Matt Cassel after his season as the team’s starting QB and as such tagged and traded him (along with Mike Vrabel) for a pick atop the 2^nd round in the 2009 Draft. The point of such moves was to give Belichick the ammo to move up and down the draft board to restock the cupboard and replace these key players with younger and cheaper talent. However, a team that once racked up draft picks and pounced on the opportunity to trade Day 3 picks for talented veterans now lacks that same aggressiveness and seems unable to operate efficiently in the NFL of today. It furthermore is an indication of a lack of coherent strategy: The team is neither aggressive in making themselves better today nor are they stockpiling assets for the future with the idea that their championship window is a year or two down the line (a sensible position given that they’ll again have a lot of cap space after this season). Instead, they seem destined for mediocrity both now and in the future without a meaningful change in strategy.

In summary, Bill Belichick and the Patriots are in the position they are today due to repeated and uncorrected mistakes in roster building–namely in the draft and in player development but also very notably in the evaluation of wide receivers (the trade for Mohammed Sanu, the drafting of N’Keal Harry, and the signing of Nelson Agholor in particular come to mind). But perhaps the most damning decision Belichick has made as of recent is entrusting the development of prized young QB Mac Jones in the hands of Joe Judge–a man with no professional experience coaching Quarterbacks and who is less qualified for the job than Jared Kushner was to lead Middle East peace talks. Belichick should have instead sought out an experienced QB coach to help accelerate Jones’s development, but doing so would require him to go outside the organization, something he seems unwilling to do. Like with the refusal to change his approach to the draft, this again reflects Belichick’s stubbornness, obstinance, and his insistence on working with those who he is close to and who toe the line as opposed to potentially more talented assistants who might challenge his beliefs and views. As the team looks to build through the draft, it is disheartening to see that the young talent will be coached by failed head coaches like Judge and Matt Patricia as well as Belichick’s sons. Granted, the team does have some talented assistants like Jerod Mayo who are respected around the league. But guys like Mayo are far overshadowed by the men who are in key roles on the staff for reasons clearly unrelated to talent.

The time is now for Robert Kraft to realize that the Patriot Way is working no more. While the team was able to overcome mistakes in the draft for a few years with the presence of Tom Brady, as well as the fact that New England was an attractive destination for key free agents willing to take modest deals in order to chase a ring (for example, Darrelle Revis), that is no longer the NFL landscape of today. Whether or not Belichick realizes this, Kraft should require the future Hall of Famer to relinquish some of his power in the organization and bring in a more diverse array of voices for both the front office and the coaching staff. That way, the organization can better build a team that can compete in today’s NFL. If Belichick is unwilling to do this, it might be time to acknowledge that all good things must come to an end and part ways with arguably the greatest coach in NFL history. 

About The Author:

Gaurav Verma is a first-year MBA candidate at The MIT Sloan School of Management. At Sloan, he is enrolled in the Finance Track and served on the Organizing Committee for the 2022 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (SSAC). Prior to Sloan, he spent four years in Investment Banking after graduating from Johns Hopkins University. He was born and raised in the Boston-area, and is an avid sports fan. He can be reached via email at gauravv@mit.edu.

NFL Podcast: Free Agency and Offseason Review

I join Sam Dounn on Til The Whistle Blows to take a look at offseason acquisitions team by team. We cover Carson Wentz in Philly, Sam Darnold in Carolina, the 49ers’ upcoming QB decision, what the Falcons should do at pick 4, the Patriots’ uncharacteristic spending spree, the Packers’ confusing Aaron Jones deal, and much, much more.

Timestamps:

AFC East

:50 – Buffalo Bills

3:44 – Miami Dolphins

8:33 – New England Patriots

12:49 – New York Jets

AFC North

17:09 Baltimore Ravens

20:33 Cincinnati Bengals

23:16 Pittsburgh Steelers

25:50 Cleveland Browns

AFC South

28:07 Jacksonville Jaguars

29:34 Houston Texans

31:59 Tennessee Titans

34:05 Indianapolis Colts

AFC West

36:41 Kansas City Chiefs

38:27 Denver Broncos

40:34 Las Vegas Raiders

44:56 Los Angeles Chargers

NFC East

47:05 Dallas Cowboys

50:14 Philadelphia Eagles

52:23 Washington Football Team

55:52 New York Giants

NFC North

58:19 Chicago Bears

1:01:00 Minnesota Vikings

1:02:40 Green Bay Packers

1:04:36 Detroit Lions

NFC South

1:07:33 Atlanta Falcons

1:13:05 Carolina Panthers

1:17:39 New Orleans Saints

1:21:44 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC West

1:22:41 Arizona Cardinals

1:25:48 Los Angeles Rams

1:27:12 San Francisco 49ers

1:30:40 Seattle Seahawks

Which teams are headed in the right direction, and which teams are lost? As always, we give our unfiltered and in-depth opinion and analysis.

Til The Whistle Blows can be found wherever you listen to Podcasts, including on Apple. Be sure to subscribe to stay tuned for updates as we get closer to the draft.

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Email Address:

Subscribe

Click here for Archives

NFL Podcast: Week 17 Review, Team Season Recaps & Draft Needs, Wild Card Preview

We made it through the regular season! The fun is just getting started though, as this weekend we have our first ever Super Wild Card Weekend, as the new expanded playoff format will give us 3 games on both Saturday and Sunday. For this episode of Til The Whistle Blows, Sam and I do a complete analysis of every team out of the playoff, what to take away from their season, and what to expect from them in the draft. We also briefly recap the Week 17 games and preview the upcoming playoff matchups. As always, there’s a ton to cover, so be sure to tune in! I first come on at the 8:38 mark. Featured on this episode:

• The Doug Pederson tank job: Eagles Head Coach Doug Pederson benches QB Jalen Hurts to play backup Nate Sudfeld in a primetime season finale against division rival Washington, therefore ensuring the loss. Why this was a sad, pathetic, disrespectful, and awful move on top of an already awful season by a coach who is officially a loser.
• The Dolphins defense collapses in a blowout loss to the Bills, and the Dolphins miss the playoffs. Calls to draft another QB are way too premature, but how will the Dolphins handle Fitz and Tua heading into the offseason and next year?
• Can the Falcons shed their choking reputation and give Matt Ryan some team to work with before he retires?
• How are things looking for Trevor Lawrence on the Jaguars?
• How the hiring of Adam Gase ruined the Jets and Sam Darnold.
• The Patriots finish at a respectable 7-9 for a rebuild year. What’s next for them, and is this it for Cam Newton?
• The 49ers competed hard despite their record, and they should be back on track next year with a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo and co.
• Another late season defense collapse sees Jon Gruden’s Raiders finish 8-8 and outside of the playoffs.
• It’s rebuild time for the Lions. Will Stafford stick around?
• The Cowboys look to bounce back next year with a healthy Dak, hopefully on a long term contract. But the same organizational problems remain.
• What will Matt Rhule do at QB next year for the Panthers?
• The Browns just slip past the Steelers without Ben Roethlisberger, but they now have to face them again, this time without their own head coach.
• Zac Taylor is sticking around. Fingers crossed for Joe Burrow.
• The Seahawks win due to some late Russell Wilson magic, but what on earth has happened to this offense?
• Which teams are in the mix for Justin Fields?
• Deshaun Watson just had a phenomenal year on an awful team and leads the league in passing.
• The Packers wrap up the 1 seed in the NFC, but Mahomes is still more deserving of MVP honors, and the Packers need to prove they can get it done in the playoffs.
• The Eagles head into an incredibly long and complicated offseason. What on Earth are they going to do with their QBs?
• Why is there a playoff game on Nickelodeon?

All that and much more, so be sure to tune in!

Til The Whistle Blows is available wherever you listen to podcasts, including on Apple. Have fun watching the games this weekend, and be sure to check back next week for more in depth analysis!

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Email Address:

Subscribe

Click here for Archives

NFL 2020 Draft Eligible QBs — Second Tier

The first round of the NFL’s first ever virtual draft is in the books, and all four QBs I looked at last ended up going. Joe Burrow, as predicted, was taken No 1 overall, and is eager to get to work with the Bengals. He was phenomenal at LSU, and hopefully we can expect more of the same with Cincinnati. The question now is whether they can get their organization together to build enough around him and not hinder his development with organizational dysfunction. We should all be rooting for Burrow to succeed; him ushering in a new era for the Cincinnati Bengals and the NFL would be a fantastic thing to watch.

Next, the Dolphins, I believe, 100% did the right thing. Despite all the pre-draft talk, they did not trade up and did not go for Herbert. They instead did what we all thought would be a sure thing a year ago, and took Tua Tagovailoa. Sure, Tua’s health may not be a sure thing moving forward, but the potential is too high to pass this up. The Dolphins had been building up to this moment for a while. If Tua ends up being injured, you can always try again for someone else. But his upside is simply too high to pass up on, and I think this move will pay dividends for Miami. In Herbert, the Dolphins would have been getting a sporadic passer who likely would not have been able to cover up the holes on the roster. Instead, they get an efficient and dynamic ball distributor who has exceeded expectations at just about every stop in his career. Sure, there will probably be growing pains. But Tua is the type of player this pick is meant for.

Speaking of Herbert, he was the next QB taken at six by the LA Chargers. I don’t have a ton of thoughts about this pick. The Chargers parted ways with longtime starter Philip Rivers earlier this year. They needed a QB, and he was the logical next guy. We’ll see how it goes. I talked about Herbert in my last piece, and I have my doubts. Of course, he has a pretty good skillset, so it could definitely workout too. I’m not going to sit here and tell you it’s a terrible pick and he has no chance. I just think there are more holes and questions there than with the other two guys. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

The last QB taken was the biggest surprise, not necessarily because he was taken, but just because of where he went. It was Jordan Love to the Green Bay Packers. If you thought the Aaron Rodgers/Packers drama was over now, boy do I have news for you. Get ready for a whole new offseason of Gossip Girl: Green Bay Packers edition!

For now, there are six more rounds to go, so let’s go ahead and take a look at the next batch of draft eligible QBs.

Tier 2: To Each Their Own

These are the QBs that you’re going to see a wide range of opinion on. Some will view them as top QBs, while others are going to think they wouldn’t be worth a pick until much later rounds. It ultimately will depend upon what you’re looking for, how you view certain attributes, and how you think these guys will transition their game to the NFL.

Jacob Eason

Eason came to the University of Georgia in 2016 as a highly rated 5 star recruit. He worked his way into the starting lineup early on and had a middling season as the bulldogs finished 8-5, but 4-4 in the SEC. The following year, Eason got hurt during the first game of the season and true freshman Jake Fromm took over. Fromm would take Georgia to the National Championship that year, and Eason decided to transfer to the University of Washington. Due to NCAA transfer rules, Eason had to sit out the 2018 season. He played his junior year at Washington and started all 13 games before declaring of the NFL Draft. Washington went 8-5 and 4-5 in the Pac-12, in part due to attrition, and longtime coach Chris Peterson decided to retire shortly after the season. However, Eason had a solid season, completing 64.2% of his passes for 3132 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions.

Eason’s skillset lives up to his recruiting status. He’s 6’6” and 227 pounds with a big time arm. Arm strength is Eason’s main selling point, and it’s immediately evident upon watching him. He can simply make throws that other QBs can’t.

Eason is a bit of a throwback QB: He’s a big, pocket quarterback with a big arm who will stand strong in the pocket and throw downfield. Greg Cosell of NFL Films compared him to Carson Palmer, and I certainly see that comparison. 

To me, Eason simply looks the part playing the position. I personally liked him more than Justin Herbert. While Herbert to me looks a bit awkward in the pocket, Eason looks like a natural back there. Though he played mostly out of the gun, he does have some experience under center with play action. There are some questions about his accuracy and play under pressure, but I believe it’s coachable. To me, the coaching and system fit is huge for Eason. If you find a program that’s willing to work with him and commit to him, he can develop. If not, he might fall by the wayside.

To that extent, I think the bigger question about Eason is whether there’s a place for guys like him in today’s NFL: That is, big, strong-armed, immobile pocket passers. In recent years, the NFL has moved towards smaller, more dynamic athletes. Eason can certainly move better than someone like Philip Rivers (most QBs can), but mobility is generally not his game. I think this shift has been apparent with the fate of two recent quarterbacks: Zach Mettenberger from LSU and Josh Rosen from UCLLA, both of the pure pocket passer mold. A decade ago, both these guys would have been looked at as top picks, but in today’s game, both were given up on quickly in favor of more athletic guys. Mettenberger fell to the sixth round (in part because of injury concerns) and played for about half a season before the Titans drafted Marcus Mariota to replace him. Similarly, Josh Rosen was drafted in the first round and played one season on a horrible Arizona team before the new coaching staff replaced him with Kyler Murray and shipped him to Miami. There, they too showed little patience in Rosen, and his future is currently up in the air.

I think Eason’s a really good prospect. Whether or not he’ll be given an opportunity to succeed, is an open question. So much of whether these guys succeed or fail is about the situation they end up in, and Eason will certainly be no different.

Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts had a really interesting college career, and he comes to the draft as a very interesting prospect. Hurts came to Alabama in 2016 as a different kind of quarterback than Nick Saban was used to. Jalen was a dual threat QB who posed a lot of danger to defenses on the ground. As a result, Nick Saban rebuilt his offense with the help of Lane Kiffin, finally embracing the type of spread/option/no huddle attack that he had resisted for so long. He did so in order to create an offense that played to Jalen’s strengths as a runner, and it worked wonders for Bama.

In two years at Bama, Hurts was 20-2 as a starter. During his freshman season, Alabama went into the Championship game against Clemson undefeated, only to lose to Deshaun Watson and the Tigers in the final seconds of the game. The following year, Hurts again took Bama to the Championship game, losing only to Auburn along the way. Except this time, Hurts was benched for Tua Tagovailoa at the half, who went on to lead the comeback win and hold onto the Bama starting job. Hurts produced the following during his two years starting at Bama:

2016: Pass: 62.8% comp, 2780 yards, 7.3 y/a, 23 TD, 9 INT
           Rush: 954 yards, 5.0 y/a, 13 TD

2017: Pass: 60.6% comp, 2081 yards, 8.2 y/a, 17 TD, 1 INT
           Rush: 855 yards, 5.6 y/a, 8 TD

Heading into the 2018 season, Tua was the clear starter at QB for Bama, as it was very evident that he was the superior passer over Jalen. Yet, Nick Saban continued to praise Jalen and was hesitant about anointing Tua the starter full on, which culminated in an infamous post-game blowup with Maria Taylor.

This gives you an idea of the kind of respect Jalen commanded at Bama. Despite being forced to bench him because of Tua’s play, Nick Saban really did not like the idea of benching Jalen Hurts. And the respect that Bama had for Hurts would only solidify during the 2018 season, where he decided to stay at Bama as a backup instead of transferring. This decision paid off for Hurts during that year’s SEC Championship game. Tua was hurt, and Jalen came into the game late and led Bama to a win–similarly to the way Tua had done so in the previous year’s championship. This time, their roles were reversed. Tua would start during the playoffs after healing up, but Jalen’s status as a legend in Tuscaloosa had been solidified.

But Jalen wasn’t done. The following year, he did ultimately pursue a transfer, and became eligible to start the 2019 season for the Oklahoma Sooners. Jalen had his best year as a starter, completing 69.7% of his passes for 3851 yards (11.3 y/a), and 32 TD to just 8 INT. He also ran for 1298 yards and 20 touchdowns. Hurts was still a runner first and foremost, but he had improved as a passer after his infamous benching at Bama.

Hurts and the Oklahoma offense started the season at a rocket pace and Hurts became the clear Heisman favorite. The offense cooled off for the second half of the year after the K-State loss, before ultimately losing to LSU in the playoff semifinal game 63-28. Joe Burrow took home the Heisman, but Hurts was the runner up (although it was not close).

The question now that will determine Jalen Hurts’s future in the NFL is this: Is he a good enough passer to succeed in the NFL? In other words, is he a quarterback, or is he just a runner that can also throw it?

This one will vary tremendously depending on who you ask. Some will applaud Hurts’s toughness, leadership, and production. They will argue that he has more than proved his ability, and that the league has evolved into allowing more running quarterbacks to have success. They might point to Lamar Jackson being overlooked in the 2017 draft, and claim that Hurts is suffering a similar fate, perhaps because of how we inherently look at black quarterbacks as “athletes”. They might also look at Dak Prescott, another guy who was overlooked coming out of college, but who has become relatively competent as a dual threat QB, and argue that Hurts could be similar.

Others will tell you that Hurts spent two years on the best team in football before being replaced by a clear superior passer. They will argue that his gaudy 2019 numbers have much more to do with Lincoln Riley’s system at Oklahoma than Jalen Hurts himself, and that Jalen simply isn’t good enough of a passer to make it at the next level.

I think both sides make good points, but I tend to lean toward the latter. In fairness, Jalen certainly did improve as a passer throughout his college career. But the difference between him and Tua at Bama was so stark that it’s hard to simply just ignore it. Tua would drop back in rhythm and pull the trigger into tight windows. Jalen, on the other hand, doesn’t seem to have a great sense of timing in the pocket, and at times will run before going through all his progressions. He also benefitted from a tremendous offensive line at Oklahoma. I remember reading earlier this year that the amount of time Jalen held onto the ball in the pocket, on average, was longer than the amount of time every NFL QB from last year held onto the ball, on average. Jalen certainly can make guys miss, and he’s a powerful and dangerous runner, but he’s not going to help his offensive line with a superb sense of timing and release. His arm is solid, but his windup is also a little bit longer than it should be. His footwork and timing (or lack thereof) is also noticeable when compared to his two predecessors, Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield, who both played with great movement and a pull-the-trigger mentality when compared to Hurts. Of course, Tua, Mayfield, and Murray were all phenomenal prospects, so it may seem a little unfair comparing him to them. But it also ain’t easy being an NFL QB. Those are the breaks. 

The other big question with Jalen Hurts is how you build your offense with him if you do want to draft him. Lamar Jackson had a ton of success the past two years in a tailor-made offense in Baltimore. He’s a different kind of passer than Hurts, but do you have to do something similar if you draft Hurts? That is, build an offense around his running skills? Are you willing to do that, and is Hurts good enough to merit that kind of treatment? Can that type of offense succeed with a passer who isn’t on the level of Lamar Jackson?

At times, Hurts reminded me of RG3 in terms of his fundamentals. That may seem a little unfair to some, and maybe Hurts is a little more polished. He’s certainly more mature, as RG3 did seem to struggle with some entitlement issues upon being crowned the next best thing so early in his NFL career. And RG3 had no experience with NFL routes in college, whereas Hurts has some. Hurts has dealt with adversity, and the intangibles are all there. There’s no doubt that the locker room will love him. The question will be, is that enough?

Again, it’s tough. I don’t think teams should dismiss Hurts off hand. He had a good college career, and teams should study that closely. The question is, once they do, will there be enough there to convince you that he can succeed at the next level?

Jake Fromm

Jake Fromm was recruited by Georgia in 2017. After incumbent starter Jacob Eason was injured in week 1, Fromm took the reigns and never looked back. He led the dogs to the National Championship in 2017 and would go on to start, I believe, every game for Georgia over the next three years. Although Georgia never got back to the Natty under Fromm after the 2017 loss, they would make the SEC Championship the next two years. During these past three years, Fromm was, to my knowledge, one of the best QBs to ever play at Georgia. Every year, he completed at least 60% of his passes with at least 24 touchdowns and no more than 7 interceptions. Fromm’s best year was 2018, where he completed 67.3% of his passes for 2749 yards, 9.0 yards per attempt, and 30 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions.

Fromm’s game is built around timing and rhythm. He does not have a big arm, and although he has a fairly quick release, he doesn’t always throw the tightest of spirals. Fromm compensates for his lack of arm strength with a superb sense of timing. He throws with plenty of anticipation and gets the ball out of his hands quickly, leading his receivers well before they make their break. Fromm is a pretty smart kid and generally knows where he wants to go with the football. He is efficient working the short to intermediate game. He does not take a lot of deep shots. He can throw deep efficiently when scripted, but struggles to go deep off of improvisation. At Georgia, Fromm was asked to keep the chains moving and avoid negative plays, and he did that very well. 

The big question with Fromm is if there’s a ceiling on his play. He was incredibly efficient at Georgia when operating a balanced attack. When he had to throw more than 30 times, or when Georgia struggled to run the football, however, Fromm struggled. Georgia won most of the games on their schedule during Fromm’s career, but each year there was one loss during the regular season where Georgia couldn’t get the run game going and the passing attack would uncharacteristically struggle. In 2017 it was Auburn, in 2018 it was LSU, and last year it was South Carolina. Fromm also struggled in Georgia’s 2018 bowl game vs Texas.

Georgia also never took the “next step” in beating Alabama or getting a National Championship under Fromm. In the 2017 natty and 2018 SEC Championship game, they gave up late leads to Bama. Last year they couldn’t get any offense going in the SEC Championship vs LSU. Fromm wasn’t always the problem in these games, but the fact remains that Georgia wasn’t able to finish against Bama. Georgia took some heat for not giving Justin Fields more playing time at QB in 2018 during their losses. Fields would eventually transfer to Ohio State and have a Heisman caliber season. It will be interesting to see how Georgia’s passing game looks this year with Jamie Newman at QB, who, like Fields, is more talented than Fromm.

Georgia’s passing game also went through a cold stretch during the second half of 2019, where Fromm wasn’t his usual self. Part of this can be attributed to injuries and youth at WR, as well as a new offensive coordinator. Outside of this stretch and the few games I mentioned, Fromm was a very efficient passer. However, the fact that this stretch was Fromm’s most recent stretch of play may have some NFL teams concerned. 

Fromm was an efficient QB for a big time SEC team, but his name hasn’t been mentioned much in draft news, so it’s possible the NFL doesn’t see him as a talent at the next level. However, I think there’s a lot to like with Fromm. He’s a timing and rhythm QB with pretty good twitch, release, accuracy, anticipation, and decision making. He’s also a very likable kid who’s easy to root for. He doesn’t have the biggest arm, and his size, while not awful, isn’t great (6’2” 219). Nonetheless, I think Fromm could be productive as an Andy Dalton type of player. Remember, Dalton was never the most gifted quarterback. He was drafted in the second round, but he still went on to start for the Bengals for 9 straight seasons, 5 of which were playoff years. Dalton set the bar for an efficient, ball distributor type of QB that could run your offensive effectively with enough team around him. I think Fromm could potentially do the same.

---

All of these guys have strengths and weaknesses. Ultimately, it will be up to NFL teams to decide whose skillset translates to the NFL, and whether their strengths can be built upon while weaknesses are minimized. 

NFL 2020 Draft Eligible QBs — First Tier

It’s really hard to believe that the NFL Draft is actually tomorrow, but here we are. It’s also a bit surreal that all this offseason activity is going on despite the fact that, you know, we might not actually have a season this year. But the draft is moving forward regardless, so I thought I’d do some analysis on the key draft eligible players for the most important and most interesting position: the quarterbacks.

I didn’t get around to doing game-by-game analysis for these players like I did last year, but I did watch extensive highlights for all of them. I also have knowledge on at least half of these guys from watching them over the past few years during the college football season. So while the analysis may not be complete, I’m hoping to give you enough to have at the very least a general idea of who these guys are and what they seem to offer going into the draft. And it’s important to remember that no matter how much tape you watch of college players, predicting how they will do in the NFL is always a projection.

I’m splitting this into tiers, but I’m going to be somewhat loose with the rankings and the categories here. From a general sense, the order and the tier are based on general consensus. But I’m also going to mention in my comments what I think of these guys and if I view them higher or lower than where perception is. The further down the tiers are, the more subjective it will become. It will make more sense as I go along.

I probably ended up watching more guys than I’ll have time to write about, seeing as this is the day before the draft. My goal here is to get the first three tiers down, and then if I have time, I’ll do some brief analysis on the other guys in a separate article.

So, without further ado, let’s go ahead and get started. These are the QBs you should know about going into tomorrow night’s draft:

UPDATE: The draft is in a few hours and I only got to finish the first tier, so I’m going to release the next few in separate articles so I can get this one out there. Also, I’m not sure the browsers will be able to handle it if I add any more GIFs in one article…

Tier 1: First Rounders

We’ve seen and heard enough up to this point to be fairly certain that at least three of these guys are going to go in the first round, if not all of them. I’d say odds are fairly high that all of these guys go in the first round. That’s just the way the league operates these days. Teams can talk about how much they love their starters, but when your time comes to pick and one of these guys is available that you thought wouldn’t be available, you’re not going to leave him there. These four guys all have first round level attributes, and that’s going to lead to teams taking chances on them.

Joe Burrow

Very few things are certain when it comes to the NFL draft. Very few things, except for one: Joe Burrow is the best QB in this year’s draft. 

If you know anything… and I mean anything… about the 2019 College Football season, you know about Joe Burrow. If not, not to worry. I’ll do my best to explain.

Joe Burrow is about as good a rags to riches story that you’ll find. He started his first two college years at Ohio State, and was essentially a third stringer riding the bench. He would occasionally get some meaningless snaps late in blowouts. Most people–including players on his own team–did not know who he was.

To my knowledge, Burrow was neck and neck with QB Dwayne Haskins at Ohio State for the starting job during Spring 2018 practices, but a minor injury set Burrow back and Haskins ended up with the job. With that, Burrow transferred to LSU.

LSU, up to that point, was known for playing great defense with incredibly conservative–some would say archaic–offense. They ran an old school pro style offense. Under center, lots of run game out of the I-formation, game managers at QB, and incredibly slow paced. LSU’s defense was always a test for opposing teams, but due to their lack of offense and game changers at QB, they could never catch up with teams like Alabama in the SEC.

2018, Burrow’s first year as a starter at LSU, was much of the same. Burrow flashed at times–he led a late game winning drive against Auburn, kept pace with A&M during a crazy shootout, and finished the season strong with 4 touchdowns in LSU’s bowl game–but for the most part he was unspectacular, as was LSU’s passing game. And LSU was the same “good, not great” SEC 2nd place team.

2019 would flip all of that on its head, and no one would see it coming.

The run heavy, ball control, conservative offense that LSU had ran for years? Coach Orgeron decided to scrap all of that. In its place, he hired Joe Brady, a two year offensive assistant for the New Orleans Saints, to install a modern college football attack. Shotgun. Five wide. Read option. Tempo. This offense had all of it. And right from the get-go, they exploded. Leading the charge was Joe Burrow, who in one season went from a nobody to not just the best player in college football, but maybe owner of the best quarterback season in college football history.

The LSU offense was, to put it simply, unstoppable, as was their quarterback Joe Burrow. In fact, it’s hard to fathom just how good Burrow was this past season. He completed 76.3% of his passes for 5671 yards, 10.8 yards per attempt, a record 60 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions for a record 202.0 passer rating. LSU went undefeated and set a record for wins against top 10 competition, taking down No 9 Texas, No 7 Florida, No 9 Auburn, No 3 Alabama, No 4 Georgia, No 4 Oklahoma, and No 3 Clemson in the final, a 42-25 win. During the Oklahoma win, Burrow threw 7 touchdown passes in the first half.

Burrow was every bit as good on the field as his numbers were. He didn’t throw short passes or bubble screens on every other play. He didn’t rack up numbers against easy competition. He didn’t rely on yards after catch. Burrow did all this by running a full field progression offense and throwing the football deep down the field. And he was phenomenal. Per ESPN, the FBS average QBR under pressure is 11.8. Joe Burrow’s was 82.6. The next closest was Tua Tagovailoa at 44.1. Joe Burrow was so good last year that you really can’t put it in words.

So besides putting up arguably the greatest QB season in CFB history, what does Joe Burrow have to offer as an NFL QB? Well again, it’s tough to know where to start, because it’s not like there are just one or two things he does well. Most of the traits you look for in an NFL QB, he has.

Burrow had full command of the LSU offense. He was patient in reading the defense before the snap, identifying both the coverage and his preferred matchup. He was both patient in the pocket when he needed to be, but also able to get through his progressions quickly and isolate coverage. He had no problems reading the field. 

Burrow was rarely, if ever, late with his passes. He threw with tremendous comfort and rhythm from the pocket, always hitting receivers in stride so as to maximize run after catch within the timing of his routes. His ball location was tremendous; he consistently put the football in the only place his receivers could find it, regularly throwing away from the leverage of the defender.

Burrow was aggressive but never reckless. He went down the field as much as the defense allowed him, but he rarely put the ball in harm’s way. And he always knew where he wanted to go. When he was ready to go deep, he’d have the matchup right away. If not, he’d immediately find his checkdown. He was masterful throwing all over the field: short, intermediate, and deep. He got the ball out of his hands and let his receivers do their job, but he would also make plays by himself. In short, he was whatever quarterback you needed him to be. And perhaps most important, he was confident and resilient. You were never going to keep Joe Burrow down for a whole game. He would always find the answer.

What gets most people excited about Burrow is his functional mobility, his ability to move and reset with comfort and ease within the pocket. In this sense, he’s been compared to Tom Brady. Burrow has a very natural feel for the pocket and for buying time. And while he’s not a runner per se, you absolutely have to account for his legs. Watching LSU this year, I was shocked how rarely the offense had negative plays. If you got pressure on Burrow, he was able to sidestep you and find room to run forward for a few yards. It wasn’t the cornerstone of his game, but he was a very capable runner when he needed to be, and it was often the last thing you expected from him. 

Burrow’s arm strength isn’t spectacular, but it’s good enough to succeed at the pro level. He regularly threw deep without timing issues or underthrows. Burrow also is an easy thrower with a quick release who throws a very catchable football. That, to me, is more important than having a gun.

Greg Cosell of NFL Films, who is never one to give hot-takes, had this to say from his film analysis of Burrow as he transitions to the NFL (emphasis mine): 

Burrow consistently exhibited the needed traits to play consistently and effectively in the NFL: poise, vision, clarity, timing, pocket efficiency, precise ball placement, second reaction ability. Burrow is a high-level prospect with a chance to be an outstanding NFL QB, especially in a league now driven by timing and rhythm passing games.

In conclusion, Burrow is a passer that shows great accuracy (especially deep), command of the offense, reads the field well, throws with timing and rhythm, moves well within the pocket, makes good decisions, has proven success, throws a very catchable ball, and is both physically and mentally tough. There’s not much more you can ask for in an NFL prospect.

Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa isn’t quite the rags to riches story that Joe Burrow is, but his rise is still pretty tremendous in its own right. I covered it pretty in depth here, but in short: Tua came to Alabama as a highly touted recruit and started his first year on the bench behind the incumbent Jalen Hurts. Head coach Nick Saban pulled Hurts at halftime of the National Title Game that year with his team down 13-0. Tua came in and led his team back from 13-0, and again back from 20-7 before throwing the game tying touchdown in the fourth quarter and the game winning walkoff touchdown in overtime. It was the stuff of legends.

From that point on, Tua and Bama went on a full fledged assault of the rest of the league, as well as the record books, putting together two of the best quarterback seasons in FBS history. For a long time, Tua was looked at as the likely No 1 overall pick of this year’s draft, as the phrase “tanking for Tua” became popular among NFL fans. Two things derailed Tua off this track: First was Joe Burrow’s otherworldly rise (see above), and the other was Tua’s unfortunate injury history. Tua has had plenty of different injuries derailing him at different points of his CFB career. Often it was a recurring ankle issue, but his most recent and final season hit him with an unfortunate hip injury that saw Tua helicoptered off the field to the hospital, effectively prematurely ending his season. 

All this has made the picture on Tua’s NFL future somewhat murky, as there are whispers that he’s falling on NFL draft boards, mainly because of his injury, but at times because teams are doubtful about his NFL transition.

But make no mistake: Tua is an absolutely special player, and if it weren’t for Burrow, he’d easily be the best QB in the draft. 

Watching Tua play, there’s just a wow factor to his game. He makes incredible throws and plays time after time, play after play, week after week. He throws an incredibly accurate deep ball and he’s an aggressive passer, always looking for the big play and more often than not, finding it. He’s a very twitchy athlete, and there’s an urgency to his dropback, movements, and release. At times, he was reminiscent of Drew Brees, with an extreme twitchiness to his movements that often synced with the timing of his routes. What immediately separated Tua from his predecessor at Bama was his willingness to turn it loose into tight coverage toward the intermediate and deeper areas of the field. His mechanics are very tight. He always moves in rhythm with his reads. He’s not a pure arm guy, but he’s twitchy enough that his full body follow-through allows him to torque the ball very well.

Though Tua is generally a gunslinger, he’s shown the ability to throw with touch as well. During his senior year, Bama incorporated more pro-style concepts to the passing game, and he has experience progression reading off of NFL style rollouts and bootlegs. 

Lastly, Tua was phenomenal when it came to second reaction plays. Time after time, he made miraculous and seemingly impossible plays from within the pocket, shaking off defenders and finding receivers downfield in stride. He’s a superb dual threat QB with the ability to make plays on the ground as well as through the air, although this did diminish at times with injury.

The biggest concern with Tua is his injury history. He seems to have fully recovered from his last injury, but with the pandemic making it so teams can’t bring him in for a physical, teams may not be comfortable with his health without getting a look for themselves. And, as Albert Breer recently astutely mentioned, recent QBs that had injury histories in college tended to get injured in the pros as well.

There is some evidence that Tua needs work reading the middle of the field, as he threw interceptions vs Clemson and LSU that showed a misreading of zone defenders over the middle. There are also those that believe that Tua’s mobility may not be as much of a factor in the pros against NFL athletes than it was in college. Greg Cosell believes that Tua will have to play more like Drew Brees (a pocket technician) than Russell Wilson (an improv artist) to have success in the NFL.

Nonetheless, at the end of the day, Tua’s upside is simply too high to pass up on. He’s easily the second best QB in this draft, and I believe any QB needy team that passes him up for anyone other than Burrow is making a huge mistake.

Justin Herbert

Herbert played all four years of his college career at Oregon, which is somewhat unusual for top prospects this day and age, considering that NCAA athletes are eligible to declare for the NFL Draft after their junior year. Herbert chose to come back to Oregon his senior year in part to have a chance to play with his little brother (enrolled as a freshman this past year), but also likely to try and improve his draft stock.

A youtube commenter wrote that Herbert is what you would get if you tried to create the prototypical quarterback in a lab, and that’s about right. He’s 6’6” and 237 pounds, towering over the defense. He has a cannon arm, and he can run as well. 

Herbert’s stats were pretty solid throughout his four years at Oregon. His first two years, he threw for above 63% completion, just under 2000 yards each year, 19 TDs to 4 INT and 15 TD to 5 INT, respectively. His career high in yards per attempt came his sophomore year at 9.6. His junior year his completion percentage dipped below 60 but he threw for over 3000 yards and increased his TD total to 29 with just 8 interceptions. His senior year he improved although not by a ton: His comp% jumped up to 66.8, and he threw for a career high 32 TD and 3471 yards to just 6 INT.

Herbert’s senior year can be looked at a few different ways. Most seem to view it as a successful finale to his college football career: The Ducks went 12-2, won the Pac-12, and beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. Herbert ran for 3 TDs in the Rose Bowl, the last of which gave the Ducks the go ahead score.

But I view it a little differently. To me, Herbert, despite his talent, still tended to show troubling bouts of inconsistency. These came up in the team’s two losses against Auburn and Arizona State. The Auburn game saw Oregon go up 21-6 before ultimately losing 27-21. The Arizona State game saw Oregon go down 24-7 before rallying in the fourth quarter, only to come up short 31-28. A similar thing happened the previous year, where Oregon went up 24-7 to Stanford before losing 38-31. The Arizona State loss this year essentially kept Oregon out of the playoff. It’s not clear that they definitely would have gotten in with the win, but they certainly would have had an argument. I can’t say that all these losses were entirely on Herbert, but too often the pattern was the same: Oregon was losing games that they simply shouldn’t have been losing because their offense would go to sleep for stretches. Yes, they won a lot of games otherwise, but it’s not like they had a ton of great competition in the Pac-12.

The same could be said for this past year’s Rose Bowl. I watched the whole game, and I was not impressed at all with Herbert. Despite the win, Herbert threw for just 138 yards and a pick through the air against the best defense he had to face all year.

Herbert played, at least during his last few years, mainly out of the pistol. It was a pretty simple offense that didn’t ask Herbert to do too much in the way of reads and NFL style dropbacks. He also heavily padded his completion percentage with bubble screens. To me, Herbert looks awkward in the pocket, especially when it comes to his feet. I could definitely see him struggling in crowded NFL pockets. Herbert also struggled at time with anticipation and reads. He was often a beat late with throws or would miss them altogether. Let’s not forget that Herbert played all four years at Oregon. We have a pretty good body of work to judge him off of. 

Herbert definitely has NFL traits, but I personally think he needs work. I think he’s similar to Josh Allen. Like Josh, Herbert could be successful on a good team that has a good run game and defense, which allows him to make splash plays. But if you draft Herbert on a rebuilding team where you’re going to be asking him to throw 40+ times, I think he could look like Blake Bortles. And I think any team that would take him over Tua is insane (there are whispers the Dolphins might do so, which I think would be a huge mistake).

Nonetheless, Herbert will likely go in the first round, because you know coaches are going to fall in love with his arm, size, and crisp over-the-top delivery. Coaches tend to take chances on the guys with special physical traits because they believe they can coach everything else. Whether that will be true with Herbert, I think, is an open question at this point.

Jordan Love

Jordan Love is an interesting case. I haven’t seen much of him, in large part due to the fact that for most of the last few years I hadn’t heard of him. Love played for Utah State, which is not a power five school, and as such was generally overlooked by the College Football fandom. But ever since draft season, he seems to be rising up draft boards, indicating that the NFL may know something about this kid that we don’t.

Love had a pretty good 2018 season for the Aggies, throwing for 32 TDs to just 6 INT. Unfortunately, those numbers declined big time last year, where he threw for 20 TD to 17 INT, which is not a good ratio. Part of this can be attributed to personnel and coaching turnover. But NFL teams will have to look closely at his interceptions and decide if they are going to be getting the version of Jordan Love from two years ago or the one from last year.

Love is being looked at as a guy with lots of untapped potential. He has a ton of arm and can run too. The ball comes out of his hands very naturally and he can make any throw in the book. Like I said, I haven’t seen a ton of him, and I didn’t love what I had seen (although the more I’ve watched the more I’ve started to see some potential). His mechanics and balance could use some work, as he doesn’t always seem to throw with a firm foundation, or with all his body parts moving together as they need to be. 

In many ways Love seems like your prototypical big arm but project guy, similar to Herbert. However, Greg Cosell of NFL Films said that Love actually has more ball-distributor traits than Herbert, which was interesting to me. He ran a spread hurry up offense, and you do see that at times while watching his tape.

At the end of the day, someone’s going to take a chance on love. Could he be a hidden Patrick Mahomes? It will certainly be interesting to see. He seems like the kind of guy that’s going to be boom or a bust.

---

That’s all for now. I’ll do my best to get the next few tiers up within the next few days.  Hopefully this was helpful. Again, these are not necessarily my favorite players, just the ones that I think are most likely to be drafted first. The draft is in just a few hours, so with all the hype and buildup, I can’t wait to finally see what ends up happening!

If you liked this article, please consider subscribing. 

The Giants Offense is Broken

I was at the game this past Sunday. The Giants fell to the Saints 18-33, bringing them to just 1-3 on the season. It’s early, but at this point our playoff chances are likely out the window. This certainly will be the case if the Giants can’t find a way to fix their offense.

The Giants fired their head coach from last year. Fired their general manager. Brought in a new offensive system. Drafted a big time running back. Brought in Nate Solder and drafted Will Hernandez. Reshuffled the offensive line. Paid Odell. Got healthy at receiver. But the result is still the same as it was last year. This offense simply can’t block, can’t move the ball, can’t get the ball down the field, and can’t score. It’s frustrating.

This was a pretty competitive game that wasn’t really ever out of reach for the Giants. There were multiple factors that went into the loss–penalties, lots of bad officiating, questionable coaching, etc. But still, the Giants defense generally held firm especially in the red zone, holding this Saints O entirely to field goals in the first half. The Giants had a nice TD drive early, but the offense went to sleep after that. The Giants wouldn’t score another point in the half, and the Saints kicked four field goals, bringing the score to 12-7 at halftime. The Giants were unable to get the offense moving in a meaningful way until it was too late. The Saints eventually scored their first TD of the day, bringing it to 19-7, and the Giants drove down the field, but ultimately stalled and had to settle for a field goal, cutting the deficit to just 19-10. That was crucial, as it kept it a two score game with just two minutes left in the third quarter. Furthermore, a Saints TD would essentially put the game out of reach. Sure enough, that’s what happened, and the Saints scored another TD to bring it to 26-10. That left the Giants needing two touchdowns and two 2 point conversions with under 7 minutes left in the game, as the Saints chewed up plenty of clock on that scoring drive.

At this point, it was looking like it was more or less over. Even with a score, you’re unlikely to convert the two point conversion, which would likely mean an onside kick attempt. But the Giants did make it interesting for a bit, as they were able to score and then convert the two point conversion. Rosas then did a great job on the kickoff, sailing the ball high and jusssttt short of the endzone. It caught the Saints napping as they were unable to field the ball cleanly, and the Giants were able to pin them deep in their own endzone. All of a sudden, the Giants had a chance. Get a stop here, force a punt, and be sure to have good field position. Maybe even force a safety with pressure or a penalty in the endzone.

But the hope was short lived. Brees, poised as ever, dropped back to pass from under center, bought time, and was able to connect down the field. Shortly after it was 3rd and 5 and the Giants fans were on their feet once again, but an incomplete pass was negated by a pass interference call on the Giants. That was more or less the game, as the Giants were out of time and timeouts, and Kamara would eventually take it to the house to put the Saints up 33-18.

But the fact of the matter is, this game still comes down to the Giants offense. They had plenty of opportunities to move the ball and were just unable to do so. You can’t expect to stop Brees (and Kamara) in the four minute drill. It’s just too unrealistic. Ultimately the Giants were in this game for most of the day, and they simply couldn’t make the plays necessary to put any points on the board. It’s a story that’s becoming all too familiar for Giants fans.

The Giants offense has been broken for quite some time now. The last time we scored 30 points in a game was week 17 of the 2015 season (it’s now 2018). (Strangely enough, this was also the last game of Tom Coughlin’s career as head coach for the Giants, so make of that what you will.) It’s actually pretty amazing that we made the playoffs in 2016 without ever scoring 30 points in a game… or that we had a coach that lasted almost two seasons and wasn’t able to put up 30 points in a game, but alas, here we are.

In an era where pretty much everyone around the NFL is literally breaking records for offense across the league, the Giants still can’t seem to put up more than 10 points in meaningful play. This Saints defense, and specifically their secondary, came in giving up big plays left and right–losing 40-48 to Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 1 and just edging the Falcons 34-47 in Week 3. In those games, Fitz was 21/28, 417 Yards, and 4 TD (14.9 yards per attempt) and Ryan was 26/35, 347 Yards, 5 TD (9.9 yards per attempt). Eli in the loss was 31/41 for 255 yards and 1 TD, for just 6.2 yards per attempt. Pat Shurmur was already beginning to get testy with reporters after the game, and Odell Beckham is already starting to show signs of frustration (which never bodes well for the Giants).

This is a winning franchise in a big time market that really hasn’t been doing a lot of winning recently, and fans are getting sick of it. When you have a problem that’s been going on this long and there are no indications of it being corrected, pressure is going to start mounting awfully quick.

Gettleman’s Choice

The Giants were in perfect position this past offseason to turn the page and start a new chapter on their franchise. They suffered through a 3-13 season, maybe the worst in Giants history, with a coach that proved himself to be about as incompetent as they come. A franchise that is largely aversive to change chose to clean shop of their general manager, coaches, and coordinators. And they also held the No 2 overall draft pick. That’s not something that’s easy to come by. With an aging Quarterback and a Quarterback heavy draft class, it would be the perfect opportunity to get their next franchise guy. After all, how often do you get the opportunity to go straight from one franchise guy to another? The Colts were in such a position when they had the No 1 overall pick in 2012 and chose to move on from Peyton Manning (one of the all time greats) to draft Andrew Luck. The Packers struck gold with the seamless transition to Aaron Rodgers, who may actually be better than his HOF predecessor, Brett Favre. And of course, we all know about Montana and Steve Young. But all in all, these are really hard situations to come by. The Giants haven’t had to worry about a Quarterback in over 10 years. To have the opportunity to be set for another decade? It seemed like a no brainer.

For Dave Gettleman, it was a no brainer. He refused to listen to any trade offers. He turned in his card as soon as he was allowed, saying that he would have turned it in in two seconds if they let him. This was a pivotal time for the Giants franchise. This move would shape their direction for years to come. The decision? …. Saquon Barkley, the running back out of Penn State.

When I heard Roger Goodell announce the pick live, I felt a wave of disappointment run over me that only seemed to get stronger as time went on. And I had rarely taken interest in the draft in the past. But with the stakes so high, this time was different. And I couldn’t help but feel that this was a tremendous missed opportunity for the Giants.

There were a few possible explanations for the choice, some offered by Gettleman after the pick, others by fans and analysts, that I simply don’t believe are correct. Those include, but are not limited to:

-Barkley was the best player in the draft.
-Barkley makes everyone on the roster better.
-There were no good Quarterbacks in this draft.
-Eli Manning has plenty of years left.
-The RB position is just as important now as it was decades ago.
-We shouldn’t draft a player who isn’t going to play right away.

I’m not going to get into all of these right now, but the point is that, ultimately, there’s really only one justifiable reason for drafting Barkley at No 2, and that’s that you believe the team is good enough to compete. You don’t take a weapon like that if you have no other pieces to build around him. You do it because you think you need that extra weapon that can push you over the top, and to bring a new dimension to an already talented roster. Because at the end of the day, Barkley’s not going to be around forever. The shelf life of running backs is pretty short. Barkley’s not a guy that needs to sit or learn the system. He’s a guy that was expected to come in and contribute right away.

My problem with this is that the Giants are clearly nowhere near ready to compete for a Super Bowl right now. Yea, they have some weapons on offense and an okay defense. But it’s still overall an average roster. The offensive line is still clearly weak, and that’s where it all starts. And while I don’t think Eli Manning is horrible or anything, he’s clearly nowhere near his anomalous 2011 level of play–a level that is probably needed to bring this roster to Super Bowl contention.

This is why you’re starting to see the frustration build up among Giants fandom and organization. I’ve seen a lot of comments from fans arguing that Eli is done and should be benched. Some people are saying that if the Giants don’t make the playoffs this year, then Gettleman will definitely draft a Quarterback next year.

You see the problem with that, right? If we’re replacing Eli Manning next year, what was the point of taking Barkley this year, and not using that rare no 2 overall pick on such a talented QB class? Pushing that decision to next year would just make this year a waste, and undermine Gettleman’s entire philosophy for his draft approach–and his franchise approach as well.

Barkley’s a good player, and I don’t think he’s necessarily hurting the offense. While it will continue to pain me for years that the Giants didn’t draft Josh Rosen, I’ve accepted, at least to some degree, that the offense consists of Barkley and Eli at this point. I don’t dislike either player, and I want both of them to succeed. I also don’t think either of them are necessarily hurting our offense in a drastic way.

The bigger issue is that we just don’t have time to be just okay, or to figure things out. With that pick, time is ticking, and it has to happen now. Because Eli does not have much time left.

This would have been entirely different if the Giants drafted a QB, because it would have been much more of a long game. The Jets took Sam Darnold, and I don’t know if he’s going to be the “QB of the future”–obviously its far to early to tell. But I think most people can agree that he’s a pretty promising prospect, and, barring something going spectacularly wrong, they’re committed to him for at least the near future. That’s why when the Jets hit offensive roadbumps, like they certainly have this season, there’s not a sense of urgency around it. I’m sure it’s frustrating, don’t get me wrong, but it’s to be expected for a rookie quarterback and a rebuilding roster.

The Colts were in a similar situation when they took Andrew Luck. Yes, there were a lot of questions about Peyton Manning’s health, and I think it was very reasonable to think at the time that he would in no way make it near the level that he eventually did with Denver. But even putting those aside, the roster just wasn’t good enough to really compete with an aging Peyton. The previous year he played, 2010, showed that. Peyton gave it all he could, but the roster was so weak that it resulted in just a 10-6 wild card loss. That same roster would go 2-14 the next year. Andrew Luck was the right decision to go for the future, with a roster rebuild that would take some time. It only would have kept sense to keep Peyton if he could have competed for the Super Bowl, which was not really feasible with that roster.

In Peyton’s defense, he did go on to assault the record book with an average Denver roster and get them within a few game(s) of the Super Bowl for multiple years. But no one could have guessed he would play at that level after his injury, and it’s really amazing that he did. And even with that, he’s now retired, and Luck is in his prime.

Also, back to Eli for a second. I’m not even saying the Giants should have replaced him this year. I would have been fine sitting a rookie for a year or even two if necessary (although that rarely happens nowadays) and playing Eli regardless of how the year went. Having the rookie there for the long run would have at least given us some insurance for the future.

But the bottom line is that the Giants, for some reason, looked at a team that went 3-13, and decided that that team was good enough to compete for a Super Bowl right now. So when it starts too like that isn’t the case, there’s going to be cause for alarm rather quickly. The Giants have to be good now, because they clearly have no plan for the future. They bet it all on the now.

What I’m Seeing from Eli Manning and The Giants Offense

I’m a little late getting this article up, and the Giants-Panthers game is currently in play as I write it, so hopefully they prove me wrong. But through the first four weeks, and especially from watching that Saints game in full, I do have some things to say about Eli Manning and what I’m seeing from him currently. I’m not going to go into whether we should bench him or whether he’s finished or any of that (as many Giants fans are doing already)–he is who he is and he’s our Quarterback at least for the current season, so he’s what we’ve got.

I think Manning winning two Super Bowls so close together to each other, along with just having the last name “Manning”, being on a generally pretty good team, and being around for so long, made people think he was better than he really is. Eli’s best season was 2011, and that year was a bit of an anomaly. When you look at his overall body of work, Eli was never the most consistent or accurate Quarterback. What he was, was an aggressive intermediate and downfield passer that didn’t hesitate to pull the trigger and throw into tight coverage. When you had a play action deep comeback or post, or a five step intermediate dig on 3rd and long, Eli would always throw those routes. And it was generally what he did best.

I’m not seeing that now. What I’m seeing now from Eli is a (perhaps overly) cautious checkdown Quarterback. The line certainly has played a role, as it’s been pretty poor for years now. But you can’t put it all on the line. No quarterback is under pressure on every play. Rather, I think that right now, for whatever reason, Eli seems a little gun shy, and hesitant to connect with his guys down the field. It’s likely that his offensive line being so poor for so long may have made him this way, and it’s now developed into a trait of its own. We saw something similar from Matt Ryan in 2013-2015, before Shanahan reinvigorated his aggressiveness. To be fair though, Eli has also not been super accurate or showed the same kind of arm strength when he has thrown the ball deep, so maybe that’s a part of his game that just isn’t what it used to be.

Regardless of the reason, it’s an issue that’s been going on for years, so it’s clear why the frustration is at a boiling point for Giants fans. It seems that no matter what changes are made, the story is the same: We just can’t move the ball on offense. Pat Shurmur was supposed to fix this as well, and it becomes even more curious that when you look at the fact that in Minnesota last year, with an average Quarterback in Case Keenum, that offense ran like a well oiled machine, and Keenum just simply had to execute and distribute.

How can it be fixed? I think that Eli Manning is a passer who needs to get into a rhythm, and I’m not seeing that as of recent. I think it may behoove the Giants to go to more pace early in games. Not even no huddle, just start a little more up tempo, with some quick throws on early downs to get Eli in a groove. Right now, the Giants are playing slow and trying to establish the ground game early with Barkley, but our offensive line might just not be good enough to do that in its current state.

Whatever the reason, one thing is clear: The Giants Offense is broken. For everyone’s sake, lets hope they find a way to fix it soon.

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Email Address:

Subscribe

Click here for Archives

Congratulations Giants, You Managed to Screw This Up.

Whelp, there goes the first round of the NFL Draft. The Giants opted not to build for the future and draft a Quarterback–despite having every reason to–and instead drafted the flashy running back, Saquon Barkley, out of Penn State.

Is Saquon Barkley a talented player and an absolute athletic physical freak of nature? Yes, of course. Will he have some plays that are absolutely spectacular? Yes. Will he make the offense better? Probably. That’s not what this is about.

This is about building the franchise for the future. And the Giants simply did not look at the big picture here.

I don’t buy the whole, “best player in the draft” thing. Quarterback is the most important position in the league, and no matter what, Quarterbacks will always be more important than running backs. You can win without a good running back. You can’t win without at least a competent Quarterback. Running backs alone simply do not carry rosters. Look at Adrian Peterson and the Vikings for the last decade. In addition, Quarterbacks are tough to find. And you have a much better chance of finding a good running back in the late rounds than you do a Quarterback. And this is all without going into the fact that Saquon Barkley, no matter how impressive his highlight reel, is simply not a guarantee to be successful in the NFL due to his running style.

If this pick was five years ago, I’d be fine with it. But let’s look at where the Giants are right now. Eli Manning, who was never consistently great to begin with, is 37 and has already shown signs of decline. QBs that old not named Tom Brady do not really win Super Bowls. Best case scenario, you get 3 more years out of Manning. But he also could be done after this year. Considering that his level of play was never at the Brady/Brees level, I expect his age related decline to be like that of Matt Schaub/Jake Delhomme: sharp and ugly. What will happen when that happens? We’ll be stuck in QB purgatory, the worst place to be in the NFL. Unless you want to keep convincing yourself that Davis Webb, our third round Texas Tech QB from last year’s draft is the answer, in which case, be my guest.

No, what the Giants had a chance to do here was do what smart teams do, and be proactive. If there were really no good QBs, then I’d understand. But this was an unusually good QB crop. Josh Rosen is already an NFL QB, in my opinion. But even putting him aside and assuming the Giants didn’t like him because he’s a rich outspoken liberal, or whatever, we can’t ignore the fact that the Browns unconventionally took the explosive but undersized Baker Mayfield with their No 1 pick, leaving Sam Darnold available on the board!!! And what did the Giants do? They let our crosstown rivals have him.

I’ve seen, and am sure I will continue to see, people saying that our offense is loaded with weapons now. Okay, maybe. But people said the exact same thing last year, and how’d that turn out for us? Yeah, there were a lot of injuries, but at the end of the day, I really think Dave Gettleman chose flash over substance here. He talked a lot about being “in love” with Barkley. Again it’s easy to fall in love with a player who is an absolute physical freak. But that doesn’t mean it’s the best thing for the franchise. I would expect fans to follow this line of reasoning, but not the General Manager.

Again, I really just see this as complete and utter shortsightedness and can’t underestimate what a mistake it has the potential of being. This move could define our franchise for years. Who cares if our offense gets a little better in the short term? It’s not what you do with the No 2 pick. This was an absolutely perfect time and perfect opportunity to turn the page to the next chapter in our franchise. Coming off a 3 win season. New coach and GM–something this organization does not do a lot. No 2 overall pick. Old QB. When are we going to be in this situation again? What more reason do you need to plan for the future? Why are you convincing yourself that getting better right now is so damn important? You could argue that a big reason the Giants have been so awful since their last Super Bowl win was an inability to plan ahead after our last Super Bowl run. The Giants ceiling, in my opinion, really isn’t that high. They have an average at best roster in total, and their Quarterback hasn’t been anything more than average as of recent. The only way this pays off is if Saquon Barkley propels this team to a Super Bowl. Call me a skeptic.

I think we’re underestimating just how hard it is to find a Quarterback in this league, how valuable they are, and how shitty it is to be stuck in QB purgatory. Maybe we’re spoiled because we’ve had Eli Manning for so long. Maybe this organization, because of how poorly the Eli Manning benching was last year, is overcompensating and is in denial. Maybe our new general manager isn’t that good. Whatever the reason is, I think this is a blatantly terrible move, and the more I think about it the worse it gets. A lot of people may disagree with me, but so be it. I can’t see how this makes sense for our franchise in the long term, and can’t help but feel we just wasted a huge opportunity. And I’m pretty bummed about it.

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Email Address:

Subscribe

Click here for Archives

Way Too Quick NFL Draft Thoughts – The Giants, Eli, Rosen, and Barkley

I’ve had a lot I’ve wanted to say about this draft and very little time to write in the past month or so, and all of a sudden it’s tonight. This post isn’t going to do it justice, but I’d like to just get a few main points out there, mainly as it concerns my New York Giants, who happen to be picking No 2 overall. Hopefully I’ll get to expand on these thoughts after the draft.

The Giants need to take a Quarterback, and it should be Josh Rosen. He’s the best of the bunch. He has fewest flaws, and his game translates the best to the NFL. QB is the most valuable position in the NFL, and this draft is a pretty talented QB class. The Giants are lucky to be picking this high. Furthermore, Eli Manning is 37 years old. He’s already shown some signs of decline, and he’s not going to be playing at a high level into his 40s like Brady and Brees are doing, because he was never that guy to begin with. I love what he’s done for the franchise, but this is the perfect time to move to the next era. We are blessed to have this incredibly high pick. There is a really great pro ready QB in Rosen, and that doesn’t always happen with the draft. And we’re coming off a 2 win season with a regime change–new head coach and general manager. What better time to turn the page to our next QB? He doesn’t have to start right away, but it’s time. We need to plan ahead, and it would be foolish to wait until Eli literally can’t play anymore at all. At that point it will be too late, and that point may be sooner than people think.

Drafting Saquon Barkley would be a mistake. First of all, running backs aren’t franchise changers. Not in today’s NFL. A running back cannot carry a franchise to wins simply by himself. Not without a Quarterback. Secondly, as freakish of an athlete that Barkley is, there are questions about his NFL fit. Greg Cosell of NFL Films has done a fantastic job breaking it down, but the gist is this: Barkley, despite his body type, is not a between the tackles NFL style runner, a grinder, a finisher, a la Frank Gore, Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott. As Cosell has put it, he’s a “bouncer”, a “run to space” guy. He won’t always get the necessary yards that are there. He’ll look for the big play. In college, this worked. In the NFL, Barkley could be deadly with the right scheme fit. But I simply disagree with the idea that he’s a can’t miss guy who would carry any franchise to relevance. Running backs aren’t those guys generally, and with Barkley and his style of running, I think it would be a waste of the No 2 pick, and would be going flash over substance.

The same can be said for whatever else the Giants might do. Trading down seems like a waste. Going Bradley Chubb, also, seems like a mistake to me. I’d be okay with Quentin Nelson, considering the importance of having anchors at offensive line in this league (look at the Dallas Cowboys), and the weakness of ours. But right now, the pick is very clear to me.

I have a bad feeling about tonight. Maybe it’s because of the things I’ve been seeing on the internet and reading here and there, but there seems to be zero indication the Giants want to take Josh Rosen. If they don’t, I would be okay with QB Sam Darnold, although he needs to be coached up. But there are also indications the Giants might not even take a Quarterback. How can this be? With the No 2 pick, a great QB draft class, and an aging QB on his last legs, are we really going to miss an opportunity to secure the long term success and prosperity of this franchise? This is a perfect opportunity, and maybe I’m just being a pessimistic fan, but it’s mind boggling to me that the Giants would throw this away. I can’t even begin to think about how I might feel if, right after the Giants pick, our crosstown rivals, the Jets, would then take Josh Rosen…

Anyway, that’s all for now. Apologies for the brevity and sloppiness of this post to my fans–as I’ve said, writing takes a while for me, and I haven’t been able to do the type of draft preparation I’ve wanted to on this blog. I’ll do my best to get some more content out after the draft tonight, but for now, I just wanted to get these thoughts out, and the message is clear: The Giants need to take a Quarterback at 2. Passing on Josh Rosen would be a mistake. Going for Saquon Barkley would be a very large mistake. Right now, my ideal picks for the Giants, in order of preference, are 1) Josh Rosen 2) Sam Darnold 3) Quentin Nelson. Anything else will be a disappointment. We will be getting a great player regardless, but at this point in time at this position, it’s not about getting great players. It’s about getting the franchise set for the future. Giants, you know what you need to do.

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Email Address:

Subscribe

Click here for Archives

We’re Having the Wrong Conversation about Josh Rosen

What if I told you that there was a Quarterback in this year’s draft class that had just about every attribute that you look for in a QB, from size, to arm strength, to footwork, to intelligence and ability to read defenses? This Quarterback was asked to run an NFL style offense on a team with a poor defense and drop-prone receivers, and in doing so was one of the more prolific passers in College Football. What if I told you this Quarterback was arguably the best QB prospect since Carson Wentz, and maybe even since Andrew Luck?

You would think that this is someone who would be talked about and looked upon with incredibly high regard during the pre-draft process. Alas, for reasons I cannot understand, this has not been the case.

Josh Rosen and the Elusive “Personality Issues”

The consensus on this year’s draft QBs is all over the place right now–which is far from unusual considering the complexity of evaluating college QBs–but what people generally seem to be able to agree on is that there’s no sure thing, with each prospect having his own set of questions.

Don’t get me wrong, if you want to argue with my assertion that Rosen is the best QB Prospect on film, I would be happy to listen. But this isn’t the argument that people are making. Instead, what happens is something like this: Pundits make a list of their QB Rankings, put a few players ahead of Rosen, and when they get to Rosen, acknowledge that he’s the most pro-ready on film with the fewest weaknesses, but then cite some vague concern about “attitude” or “personality” as the apparent sole evidence that he’s not the best QB prospect. For example…

Todd McShay of ESPN put Rosen 3rd on his Draft QB Rankings, citing that, “There isn’t much [negative] you can point to on the field, other than some poor decision-making and his lack of mobility outside the pocket. Teams are doing their research to find out just how driven Rosen is and how he would fit in with their team culture.”

Kay Adams of NFL Network’s Good Morning Football said that she would be more comfortable taking Sam Darnold over Josh Rosen, because, “When there’s smoke, there’s fire”, referring to the perception that Rosen simply isn’t invested enough in Football to be the leader of a franchise.

The usually spectacular Andy Benoit of the MMQB posited questions about Rosen’s personality in his first look at this draft’s QBs–unusual for an analyst that almost always sticks to film study.

These are just a few examples of the overall trend (and they’re of the more reasonable variety), and it’s what the narrative about Rosen has come to: Vague, cliched, and generally unsubstantiated questions about his “personality” and “love of the game” seem to entirely offset the fact that he is by far the least flawed Quarterback prospect in the draft.

And people generally seem to acknowledge this fact. If the only criticism about Rosen you can come up with has to do with personality, then that implies that there’s nothing about his actual game to criticize. And if that’s the case, he should already be at the top of everyone’s draft rankings. Personality critiques, in this case, as opposed to the red flag people paint them to be, are actually a tacit acknowledgement of how flawless the player is in every other sense that matters. And at the end of the day, you’re not drafting a player to win a personality contest; you’re drafting them to win football games.

There is Very Little Substance to the Critique of Rosen

Don’t get me wrong: Personality does matter. I’ve criticized Cam Newton for his attitude in the past. As a Giants fan, I often can’t stand the way Odell Beckham behaves. I do want my guy to be a leader both on the field and off it. So in the case of Rosen, the issue isn’t that there are concerns about his personality per se; it’s that there is very little of merit within those actual “concerns” that people cite. What they are is gossip, stereotypes, and the snowballing of a narrative that had nothing to stand on in the first place.

With Cam Newton there were identifiable occurrences you could point to in College that would be reason for concern about his personality. While at the University of Florida, Newton, according to wikipedia, “was arrested on felony charges of burglary, larceny, and obstruction of justice on an accusation that he stole a laptop computer from another University of Florida student” and was “subsequently suspended from the team”. He transferred before allegedly facing “potential expulsion […] for three instances of academic dishonesty”. He was also embroiled in a scandal where his father allegedly orchestrated a “pay for play” situation to get Cam enrolled at Auburn. Despite all this, Newton was selected No 1 overall in the 2011 draft by the Carolina Panthers.

Similar things could be said about Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M. Although not enough was made about his actual on field flaws during the draft process, he too had a litany of identifiable personality red flags, including but not limited to being arrested. He also left the Manning Passing academy after oversleeping, an example of something that could actually justifiably be used to say that someone might not have the dedication level you would want in a Quarterback.

And what about Baker Mayfield? Like Rosen, he is also a QB prospect in this upcoming draft. But unlike Rosen, he was actually once arrested and “charged with public intoxication, disorderly conduct, resisting arrest and fleeing”. (He also caught fire for facing the opposing sideline and grabbing his crotch to taunt them during one of Oklahoma’s wins this year). And yet Rosen is the QB prospect with personality issues?

I’m not trying to pick on any of these players. I’m merely saying that when players actually have personality issues, there are usually things that happen to justify those concerns.

But what’s the problem with Rosen? He apparently doesn’t love the game, or he doesn’t have the personality of a leader.

I’ll tell you exactly what Rosen is that people don’t like: He’s a rich, smart, liberal California kid. And that doesn’t fit the image a lot of people have of the country kid southerners who tend to overwhelmingly play in the NFL. Many have said that because Rosen grew up wealthy, he might not love the game as much as someone who needs it to make a living. Frankly, this is total bullshit. You can both have money and still love football, and the fact that he’s great at football is proof of this. As for the personality thing, I’ve watched some interviews of Rosen, and he is a bit of a different type of personality. He’s definitely more aloof; he’s not an in your face, cliche, “put me in there coach, I’ll do it all for the team!” guy like Russell Wilson. But you know what, who cares? People have different leadership styles and personalities. If they get the job done without being a jerk, then who cares what they say or how they motivate their teammates. You know who else is a QB that’s kind of aloof? Eli Manning, and he currently has 2 Superbowl Rings. Aaron Rodgers is another guy that often rubbed people the wrong way and is often looked at as cocky. He’s also one of the greatest Quarterbacks to every throw a Football. At the end of the day, whether a guy fits an image of how someone wants a Quarterback to act shouldn’t affect their draft evaluation.

Compounding this whole, pointless conversation about Rosen’s personality is his former UCLA Coach Jim Mora, who had this to say publicly about Rosen earlier this week:

“He needs to be challenged intellectually so he doesn’t get bored. He’s a millennial. He wants to know why. Millennials, once they know why, they’re good. Josh has a lot of interests in life. If you can hold his concentration level and focus only on football for a few years, he will set the world on fire. He has so much ability, and he’s a really good kid.”

First of all, let’s remember that Mora was justifiably fired midseason from UCLA, and no one really had an issue with it. That alone should question whether we should take his opinion seriously. But putting that aside, since when is a Quarterback wanting to be challenged intellectually a bad thing? Shouldn’t you want that out of your players? Quarterback is by far the most intellectual position in the sport. It’s all about compiling and processing information. Peyton Manning was the best in the game for a long time because his mind was literally a computer. He knew everything he was seeing, and no one could read a defense like him. He literally turned football into a chess game. If you showed him the same coverage twice, you were getting burnt. At the end of the day, if a guy’s not asking why, why this coverage looks like this, why the ball should go here, what this player is doing in this coverage, how to best attack this coverage, etc etc etc, then there’s a problem. And then there’s the fact that Josh McDaniels, the Patriots current Offensive Coordinator, basically said the same thing about Tom Brady that Mora said about Rosen:

“[Brady’s] a challenging guy to coach because his aptitude is so significant. He’s a tremendous player as far as coming every day ready to work and ready and willing to learn. That pulls the best out of you as a coach because you can’t go into the meeting room and not challenge this guy to try and get better.

Here’s a guy, he’ll go down as what he’ll go down as, which is one of the greatest players ever to play in this game, but he still comes into every meeting looking for something that’s going to make him a better player that day. And as a coach, you have to respond accordingly, whether it’s making sure you provide him with that information or you find something to help him improve some aspect of his game.”

Focus on What Matters, and You’ll See a Can’t Miss Prospect

I might be able to give some credence to the “he doesn’t love the game” concept if there was literally any evidence from his game on the field to back it up. But if a guy is as great as Rosen is with all the fundamentals and subtle nuances of playing Quarterback, then that alone should be proof against the claim. You don’t get to where Rosen is playing QB if you don’t truly love the game. Shame on people for not realizing that.

What this is really about is the media taking narratives and running with them, regardless of if they’re true or not. We saw it when nearly every draft expert said that Johnny Manziel was the best QB Prospect of the 2014 Draft–even after they would acknowledge that Teddy Bridgewater was the most pro-ready on film. But Manziel had the “it” factor or a different “compete level” or something like that. We saw it when, during the 2015 season, the media nearly unanimously decided that Cam Newton was the MVP, even though Carson Palmer was superior in every meaningful statistical category. For Rosen, the narrative has become that he has personality issues that will affect his play, even though there’s nothing to suggest that this is the case.

None of this is to say Rosen will be a guaranteed superstar or that there are zero concerns with him at all. But these aren’t things you can say about any prospect at any position. They’re called prospects for a reason. And insofar as QB prospects go in this year’s draft, Rosen is the best there is and stands alone from the rest. Hopefully, people will be able to start cutting through the noise to realize that. But if not, I’m sure Rosen will use all this as even more fuel to motivate him once he is in fact drafted.

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Email Address:

Subscribe

Click here for Archives