It’s Saturday, February 3rd. The Super Bowl is tomorrow. Being a fan of the game, and having a football blog, it would seem that I should write a post about this game. Preview what interests me about the matchup, what we should be looking for, what I think will happen, etc.
But here’s the thing: I can’t really seem to get excited about this game, to the point where I have very little interest in doing any sort of look at the X’s and O’s of the matchup. Sure, I could pretend to be interested and dig deep to find things to talk about. But what’s the point? At the end of the day, we all know what’s going to happen. The Patriots are going to win, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are going to get their sixth Super Bowl ring, and the rest of us that don’t live in New England are going to be subject to nonstop talk about how great the Patriots are and how Brady is the greatest of all time–or GOAT, in football speak.
This Super Bowl matchup ended up being about as bad as it could be. It’s been an off year for the NFL, as the league is in somewhat of a transitional period. A lot of great players from my generation have retired, and the current crop of young players aren’t quite ready to carry the torch yet. There also seems to be a lack of quality head coaches currently. The result has been an absurdly weak AFC in particular. The Chiefs were one of the few teams that could have held water with New England, but they got upset at home in the Wild Card round by the 9-7 Titans, with the help of some fluky plays and some god awful calls by the refs. The Ravens have played the Patriots well in the past, but they’ve been stuck in mediocrity ever since Flacco signed his post Super Bowl megadeal, and they blew their playoff chances with a Week 17 loss to the 7-9 Bengals. The only other real AFC Powerhouse outside of the Chiefs is the Steelers, but they look like a varsity team whenever they go to Gillette, and their coaching staff is incredibly overrated. It was probably for the best that they lost to upstart Jacksonville before having to face New England, as Jacksonville, who had a tremendous turnaround under Tom Coughlin, played the Patriots pretty well in the Championship game. Bortles played about as well as he’s capable of, but winning in Gillette with a limited QB and an inexperienced Head Coach ended up being too tall a task. When the 4th Quarter rolled around, it was the same old story for the Patriots. Brady went into clutch mode, McDaniels dialed up some trick plays, the o-line protected Brady well, Amendola got going underneath, and a situational defense that is historically good at protecting 4th Quarter leads at home, did just that. Just like that, the Pats were off to the Super Bowl. Again. Yawn.
Well at least there was still hope for the NFC right? Well the Packers were out of the mix, as the injury bug hit Aaron Rodgers this year, and Hundley was unable to keep them alive until Rodgers came back. (Well, technically, they were still alive when Rodgers returned, but only barely, and a 3 INT performance in Carolina by him was the dagger, as they would shut Rodgers down for the year after that loss.) The Falcons, despite an improved defense, were only a shell of their Super Bowl offense from a year ago, and they could only muster a mere 10 points in their Wild Card loss to Philly. Carson Palmer got hurt again… and then retired. The Lions and Cowboys, as usual, were stuck in 9-7 purgatory. The young Rams had a nice first year under Sean McVay, but struggled in their playoff debut. But hey, at least the Saints were back right? It was nice to have a Drew Brees led team doing well again, but unfortunately for them, they’re just not a very good road team, and they were unable to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs. A Brady/Brees Super Bowl would have been fantastic, but first they had to get through the Vikings (after an impressive win hosting Carolina in the Wild Card round). In what looked like a great matchup on paper, the Saints looked awful and fell to a 17-0 deficit at halftime. They rallied to make it 23-21 late, and looked like they had a win secured. But, seemingly wanting to compete with Atlanta for “biggest choke in NFL history” title, they gave up a touchdown with 10 seconds left. The Vikings threw a deep out, trying to get into FG range, and after it was caught, Marcus Williams, the Saints safety, made one of the worst tackle attempts you will ever see. He not only missed entirely, but he then collided with the corner, leaving no one to tackle Diggs, who then sprinted to the endzone. Whelp.
Ok, so things really weren’t looking good for a good Super Bowl matchup. But there was still some hope. The Championship Game was Minnesota at Philadelphia. Sure, Minnesota was playing with their backup QB, Case Keenum, who, despite having a phenomenal season, is still a pretty unexciting player to watch. But it was still a great story for them to make it this far. They were clicking on all cylinders both offensively and defensively. And, if they could make it past Philly, they would have been the first team ever to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium. That would have been awesome story, and that homefield advantage combined with their awesome defense would have definitely given them a shot vs New England.
You had to like their odds coming into the Championship game. However, just before Jake Elliott kicked off, the announcers offered a troublesome stat: Dome teams on the road in the Championship round have never won.
History, and stats, tend not to lie, and this one wasn’t either. The Vikings, after their awesome Cinderella run to make it this far, fell apart entirely. They lost 38-7. Nick Foles decided to have one of the best games of his career, and the Vikings were outcoached and outplayed on both sides of the ball.
About those Eagles: Earlier in the season, they were one of the few NFC powerhouses. They looked awesome behind second year star Carson Wentz at QB–along with great defense, coaching, and some nice free agent additions. A Pats Eagles SB with Wentz at QB would have been great, and despite being a Giants fan, I couldn’t help root for Philly. Wentz is a great QB and a really likeable young player.
However, it all changed when Wentz got hurt against the Rams and was lost for the season. That left the Eagles with Nick Foles for the remainder of the season. He struggled to close out the regular season before getting hot in the Playoffs, with the help of some nice playcalling and play design. Despite Foles’s struggles, the Eagles had been good enough under Wentz to secure the No 1 overall seed and home field advantage throughout the Playoffs.
So with that Viking loss in the Championship round, this is what we’re left with: A New England vs Philly Super Bowl. As I said earlier, I’m not too interested in doing a deep dive of the X’s and O’s, because I don’t think the Eagles have that much of a shot to win this. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think they’re going to get blown out. They’re a good team, and it’s not like it’s a fluke that they’re here. However, at the end of the day, what you’re looking at with this matchup is the best coached and most experienced team in Football in the Patriots against a team with a limited backup Quarterback.
Nick Foles is not going to do against New England what he did vs Minnesota. He’s just not. Period, end of story. That was an anomalous performance by him. On a neutral site, against the New England defense, it’s not going to happen.
Philly can run the ball. They can run the “run pass option” plays that Foles is comfortable with and that they’ve been so successful with. But at the end of the day, there are going to be situations where your Quarterback is going to have to make plays to win. Not proactive plays, where everything is schemed up well, but reactive plays, where the Quarterback himself makes the play. If your Quarterback can’t do that vs New England, you’re not going to beat them. And call me a skeptic, but I don’t see it happening with Foles consistently enough for them to win.
Where is the path to victory for the Eagles in this game? The Pats are great on special teams. They’re great on offense. Gronk is healthy. Amendola’s a threat. Brady is Brady. McDaniels is McDaniels. They’re going to get matchups they like. They’re going to run the hurry up and go pass heavy if they feel the game demands it. If the last few years are any indication, they’re going to have success with it.
Defensively, they started the season a mess, but they’ve gone a total 180 and are just what we expect from the Patriots. No surprise there. Butler will take Torrey Smith. No problem there. Gilmore will take Jeffery. Shouldn’t be a problem there either. Ertz is a threat, but expect Belichick to double him.
Again, the Eagles will have some success. They will have plays that work. But will they have enough success consistently to the point where they out-execute and keep up with one of the best Quarterbacks and coaches to ever play the game? I mean.. you tell me if I’m missing something here.
No, what we’re most likely looking at here, barring some miracle or collapse, is a sixth ring for Brady and Belichick, who now seemingly have a second dynasty in 2014-2017 to go along with their first in 2001-2004. What goes around comes around, I suppose.
If I seem down, it’s because I am. If it seems like I want the Patriots to lose, it’s because I do. And no, it’s not because I think they’re “cheaters”. I think they probably broke some rules at some point, but I don’t think anything they did should really tarnish their accomplishments. It’s not because I think Brady is a two faced pretty boy (he is), or because the Patriots support Trump, or anything superficial like that. It’s not because I think the refs helped the Patriots a lot this year (they did).
No, I’m just sick of the Patriots winning. I’ve written about this before. What’s the fun in it? The NFL I know, the NFL that is interesting and fun, is one where anyone can win it any year. Sure, there will be perennially good teams and perennially bad teams, but ideally, everyone should have a shot.
Of course the Patriots earned this outcome, but it was also utterly predictable from the very start of the season. The NFL is weak. The Patriots are strong. When you combine the best coaching and execution of the game with a weak NFL and a couple breaks here and there, of course they’re going to win.
I’m just sick of them. I’m sick of hearing about them. I’m sick of hearing from their fans, who are some of the most boastful, pompous, and obnoxious people in sports. I’m sick of the media who won’t shut up about how great they are. I’m sick of hearing about the Patriot way, about how Tom is the GOAT. I’m sick of hearing the numbers about how often they’ve won and how what they are doing is unprecedented. I’m sick of being called a hater or jealous because everytime I turn on the radio or TV all I hear is someone else telling me how amazing the Patriots are. I’m sick of people calling nuanced analysis that doesn’t fawn over the Patriots “hating”. I’m sick of Patriots fans assuming I want to talk about their team when there are 31 other teams in the NFL.
It’s not fun. It’s not interesting. It’s bothersome, it’s boring, it’s repetitive, and it’s getting awfully old.
Anyway, that’s about all I have to say on this one. The Pats will most likely win, Patriots nation will freak out and won’t shut up about it, and the rest of us will collectively, sigh, shrug, and move onto whatever next thing we have to grab our attention. Maybe I need a new hobby.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Eagles 17